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Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease


  • Kirill Sosunov

    (Higher School of Economics)

  • Oleg Zamulin

    () (New Economic School)


The paper studies monetary policy in an economy, in which the manufacturing sector is ousted completely by the presence of a large natural resource industry. Thus, the economy produces only non-tradable goods, which can complement or substitute imported goods, and the primary shock to the economy comes from the fluctuations in the world price of the exported commodity. A model of such an economy is calibrated using parameters relevant for Russia, which is an example of an economy sick with Dutch Disease, and several conventional policy rules are considered. It is shown that in absence of a well-functioning fiscal stabilization fund, it may be optimal for monetary authorities to respond to the real exchange rate, as the Bank of Russia allegedly does, using purchases of foreign reserves as the policy instrument. The logic of these actions is to replace the absent fiscal stabilization policy. In case monetary policy is conducted using an interest rate instrument, there should be no reaction to the real exchange rate and only slight one - to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0101

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Blog mentions

    As found by, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Thinking about monetary policy in Russia – a useful DSGE model?
      by Lars Christensen in The Market Monetarist on 2013-04-26 00:50:13


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.
    2. Замулин О.А. & Платонов К.Е., 2015. "Протекционизм Как Противоциклическая Политика," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 51(3), pages 3-18, июль.
    3. Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2014. "Monetary policy and the Dutch disease effect in an oil exporting economy," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 138, pages 78-102.
    4. Semko Roman, 2013. "Optimal economic policy and oil prices shocks in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 13/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    5. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Prytula, Yaroslav & Raskina, Julia & Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2009. "A small forward-looking inter-country model (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1172-1183, November.
    6. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    7. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2009. "Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shulgin, Andrei, 2014. "How much monetary policy rules do we need to estimate DSGE model for Russia?," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 36(4), pages 3-31.
    9. Karev, M., 2011. "Revealed Preferences of the Bank of Russia. Simulation Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 9, pages 72-97.
    10. Shulgin, A., 2015. "Optimization of Simple Monetary Policy Rules on the Base of Estimated DSGE-model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 64-98.
    11. Duc Pham-Hi, 2014. "Shadow banking dynamics and learning behaviour," EcoMod2014 6920, EcoMod.
    12. Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2011. "Monetary Policy and the Dutch Disease in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy," Working Papers halshs-00654511, HAL.
    13. repec:nea:journl:y:2017:i:33:p:75-115 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Айвазян С.А. & Березняцкий А.Н. & Бродский Б.Е., 2016. "Региональные Модели Ценовых Индексов," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 52(4), pages 24-46, октябрь.
    15. Рубинштейн Александр Яковлевич, "undated". "Рациональность & Иррациональность: Эволюция Смыслов
      [Rationality & Irrationality: Evolution of the Senses]
      ," Working papers a:pru175:ye:2017:1, Institute of Economics.
    16. Drygalla, Andrej, 2017. "Monetary policy in an oil-dependent economy in the presence of multiple shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 14/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    17. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2014. "Spillover Effects in the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus," EcoMod2014 7160, EcoMod.
    18. Irina Khvostova & Alexander Larin & Anna Novak, 2014. "Euler equation with habits and measurement errors: estimates on Russian micro data," HSE Working papers WP BRP 52/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    19. Ruslan Aliyev, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp466, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    20. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in a Dutch Disease Economy," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/25, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    21. repec:voj:journl:v:63:y:2016:i:4:p:395-409 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Khvostova, I. & Novak, A., 2014. "Monetary Stabilization: Modeling and Estimation for Russian Economy in 2004-2012," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 89-105.

    More about this item


    Dutch disease; Monetary Policy; Russia;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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