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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Candidate Countries

Author

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  • Coricelli, Fabrizio
  • Jazbec, Bostjan
  • Masten, Igor

Abstract

In this Paper we analyse the link between the choice of exchange rate regime and inflationary performance in four EU accession countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. Estimation of pass-through effect of exchange rate changes to CPI inflation is complemented by I(2) co-integration analysis of stochastic nominal trends. The results allow a clear ranking of countries according to the size of the pass-through effect and the importance of exchange rate shocks to overall inflationary performance. In particular, we find that perfect pass-through effect can be associated with accommodative exchange rate policy, which can moreover become the most important source of inflationary pressures. The analysis suggests that for CEEC-4 the early adoption of the euro can provide the most efficient framework for reducing inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Candidate Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3894
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Federico Ravenna & Giovanni Lombardo, 2009. "Trade and Optimal Monetary Policy," 2009 Meeting Papers 784, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Mihailov, Alexander, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through on Prices in Macrodata: A Comparative Sensitivity Analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 8867, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, pages 518-537.
    4. María-Dolores, Ramón, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through in New Member States and candidate countries of the EU," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 23-35, January.
    5. Jerzy Pruski & Piotr Szpunar, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Poland," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 427-437 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Fabrizio Coricelli & Boštjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "L'influence du régime de change sur l'inflation dans les pays adhérents," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, pages 51-61.
    7. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk Tuger & Umit Ozlale & Burc Tuger & Devrim Yavuz & Eray M. Yucel, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Has it Changed and to What Extent?," Working Papers 0504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    8. Roberta De Santis, 2004. "Has Trade Structure Any Importance in the Trasmission of Currency Shocks? An Empirical Application for Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries to Eu," ISAE Working Papers 43, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    9. Jarko Fidrmuc & Matúš Senaj, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Regimes in Slovakia and the New EU Member States (in Slovak)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(1-2), pages 40-57, January.
    10. Alexander Mihailov, 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through to prices in macrodata: a comparative sensitivity analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 346-377.
    11. Fabrizio Coricelli & Boštjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "L'influence du régime de change sur l'inflation dans les pays adhérents," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, pages 51-61.
    12. Korhonen, Iikka & Wachtel, Paul, 2006. "A note on exchange rate pass-through in CIS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 215-226.
    13. Vincent Aussilloux & Michaël Pajot & Mathilde Maurel, 2003. "Enjeux commerciaux de l'élargissement de l'Union européenne ; suivi d'un commentaire de Mathilde Maurel," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 363(1), pages 235-265.
    14. Martins Bitans, 2004. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment," Working Papers 2004/04, Latvijas Banka.
    15. Gonzalo Caprirolo & Vladimir Lavrac, 2003. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Slovenia," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp17g, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 May 2003.
    16. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute.
    17. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, pages 518-537.
    18. Haaparanta, Pertti & Pirttila, Jukka, 2007. "Reforms and confidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 534-550, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emu accession; I(2) co-integration analysis; pass-through effect;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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