Human Activities and Global Warming: A Cointegration Analysis
Do human activities indeed cause global warming? This paper attempts to answer this question by reexamining the time series properties of climate variables and the existence of long-run relationships between them. Double unit root testing shows that most of the radiative forcings of greenhouse gases are integrated of order two. We then apply an I(1) and I(2) cointegrating rank analysis to identify the presence of I(2) components. After identifying a linear combination of I(2) variables that cointegrates to an I(1) process, we proceed with the I(1) cointegrating analysis and we identify two possible cases with different rank specifications. Estimation of the equation for temperature suggests that this variable reacts significantly to the radiative forcings of greenhouse gases in the long-run. This evidence allow us to conclude that human activities affect temperature variations.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 450, Station A, Ottawa, Ontario, K1N 6N5|
Phone: (613) 562-5753
Fax: (613) 562-5999
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.uottawa.ca/eco/eng/index.asp
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fomby, Tom & Vogelsang, Tim, 2000. "The Application of Size Robust Trend Analysis to Global Warming Temperature Series," Working Papers 00-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Johansen, Søren, 1995.
"A Stastistical Analysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 25-59, February.
- Johansen, S., 1991. "A Statistical Analsysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables," Papers 77, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
- Nielsen, Bent, 2001. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Unit Root Tests of Unstable Autoregressive Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 211-219, January.
- D'Andrade, Kendall, 1992. "The End of an Era," Business Ethics Quarterly, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 379-389, July.
- David I. Stern & Robert K. Kaufmann, 1997. "Time series properties of global climate variables: detection and attribution of climate change," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 9702, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
- Isabel Busom, 2000. "An Empirical Evaluation of The Effects of R&D Subsidies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 111-148.
- Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December.
- Minoru Kitahara & Toshihiro Matsumura, 2006. "Realized Cost-Based Subsidies For Strategic R&D Investments With "Ex Ante" And "Ex Post" Asymmetries," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(3), pages 438-448.
- Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
- Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Poyago-Theotoky, Joanna, 1998. "R&D Competition in a Mixed Duopoly under Uncertainty and Easy Imitation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 415-428, September.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
- Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992. "Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model," Discussion Papers 92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, April.
- Klette, T.J. & Moen, J. & Griliches, Z., 1999. "Do Subsidies to Commercial R&D Reduce Market Failures? Microeconometric Evaluation Studies," Papers 16/99, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
- Lakdawalla, Darius & Sood, Neeraj, 2004. "Social insurance and the design of innovation incentives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 57-61, October.
- Petrakis, Emmanuel & Poyago-Theotoky, Joanna, 2002. "R&D Subsidies versus R&D Cooperation in a Duopoly with Spillovers and Pollution," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 37-52, March.
- Martin, Stephen & Scott, John T., 2000. "The nature of innovation market failure and the design of public support for private innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 437-447, April.
- Stephen Martin & John T. Scott, 1999. "The Nature of Innovation Market Failure and the Design of Public Support for Private Innovation," CIE Discussion Papers 1999-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Industrial Economics.
- Karolina Ekholm & Johan Torstensson, 1997. "High-Technology Subsidies in General Equilibrium: A Sector-Specific Approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1184-1203, November.
- Ekholm, Karolina & Torstensson, Johan, 1996. "High-Technology Subsidies in General Equilibrium: A Sector-Specific Approach," Working Paper Series 467, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Niels Haldrup & Peter Lildholdt, "undated". "On the Robustness of Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Double Unit Roots," Economics Working Papers 2000-1, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Haldrup, Niels Prof. & Lildholdt, Peter, 2000. "On the Robustness of Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Double Unit Roots," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt2k0780sh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Rahbek, Anders & Christian Kongsted, Hans & Jorgensen, Clara, 1999. "Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 265-289, June.
- Clara Jørgensen & Hans Christian Kongsted & Anders Rahbek, 1996. "Trend-Stationarity in the I(2) Cointegration Model," Discussion Papers 96-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Nielsen, Bent, 2010. "Analysis Of Coexplosive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 882-915, June.
- Bent Nielsen, 2005. "Analysis of co-explosive processes," Economics Papers 2005-W08, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Fiess, Norbert & MacDonald, Ronald, 2001. " The Instability of the Money Demand Function: An I(2) Interpretation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 475-495, September.
- Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-461, October.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Miyagiwa, Kaz & Ohno, Yuka, 2002. "Uncertainty, spillovers, and cooperative R&D," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 855-876, June.
- Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 188-202, June.
- Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)