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Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis

  • Matthew T. Holt


    (University of Alabama, Department of Economics, Finance & Legal Studies)

  • Timo Teräsvirta


    (Aarhus University, Department of Economics and Management and CREATES)

This paper examines trends in annual temperature data for the northern and southern hemisphere (1850-2010) by using variants of the shifting-mean autoregressive (SM-AR) model of González and Teräsvirta (2008). Univariate models are first fitted to each series by using the so called QuickShift methodology. Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimates of a bivariate system of temperature equations are then obtained. The system is then used to perform formal tests of co-system in the hemispheric series. The results show there is evidence of co-shifting in the temperature data, most notably since the early 1980s.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2012-54.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 21 Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-54
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  1. Liu, Hui & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2005. "Human activities and global warming: a cointegration analysis," MPRA Paper 9939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Trevor Breusch & Farshid Vahid, 2008. "Global Temperature Trends," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-495, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  3. Barry K. Goodwin & Matthew T. Holt & Jeffrey P. Prestemon, 2011. "North American Oriented Strand Board Markets, Arbitrage Activity, and Market Price Dynamics: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 993-1014.
  4. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
  5. Timo Terasvirta & Andrés González, . "Modelling autoregressive processes with a shifting mean," Borradores de Economia 420, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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  7. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  8. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  9. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  10. Andrés González & Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," CREATES Research Papers 2009-03, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  11. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  12. Franchi, Massimo & Ordóñez, Javier, 2008. "Common smooth transition trend-stationarity in European unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 106-109, November.
  13. Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 1998. "Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-36, May.
  14. Camarero, Mariam & Ordonez, Javier, 2006. "Is there a nonlinear co-movement in the EU countries' unemployment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 157-162, November.
  15. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
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