IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis

  • Matthew T. Holt

    ()

    (University of Alabama, Department of Economics, Finance & Legal Studies)

  • Timo Teräsvirta

    ()

    (Aarhus University, Department of Economics and Management and CREATES)

This paper examines trends in annual temperature data for the northern and southern hemisphere (1850-2010) by using variants of the shifting-mean autoregressive (SM-AR) model of González and Teräsvirta (2008). Univariate models are first fitted to each series by using the so called QuickShift methodology. Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimates of a bivariate system of temperature equations are then obtained. The system is then used to perform formal tests of co-system in the hemispheric series. The results show there is evidence of co-shifting in the temperature data, most notably since the early 1980s.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/creates/rp/12/rp12_54.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2012-54.

as
in new window

Length: 31
Date of creation: 21 Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-54
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  2. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  3. Liu, Hui & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2005. "Human activities and global warming: a cointegration analysis," MPRA Paper 9939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Andrés González & Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," CREATES Research Papers 2009-03, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  5. van Dijk, Dick & Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2001. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0429, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 16 May 2002.
  6. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  7. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
  8. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  9. Franchi, Massimo & Ordóñez, Javier, 2008. "Common smooth transition trend-stationarity in European unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 106-109, November.
  10. Camarero, Mariam & Ordonez, Javier, 2006. "Is there a nonlinear co-movement in the EU countries' unemployment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 157-162, November.
  11. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. González Andrés & Teräsvirta Timo, 2008. "Modelling Autoregressive Processes with a Shifting Mean," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, March.
  13. Trevor Breusch & Farshid Vahid, 2008. "Global Temperature Trends," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-495, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  14. Barry K. Goodwin & Matthew T. Holt & Jeffrey P. Prestemon, 2011. "North American Oriented Strand Board Markets, Arbitrage Activity, and Market Price Dynamics: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 993-1014.
  15. Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 1998. "Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-36, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.