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Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew T. Holt

    (University of Alabama, Department of Economics, Finance & Legal Studies)

  • Timo Teräsvirta

    (Aarhus University, Department of Economics and Management and CREATES)

Abstract

This paper examines trends in annual temperature data for the northern and southern hemisphere (1850-2010) by using variants of the shifting-mean autoregressive (SM-AR) model of González and Teräsvirta (2008). Univariate models are first fitted to each series by using the so called QuickShift methodology. Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimates of a bivariate system of temperature equations are then obtained. The system is then used to perform formal tests of co-system in the hemispheric series. The results show there is evidence of co-shifting in the temperature data, most notably since the early 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew T. Holt & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2012-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-54
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, "undated". "Detection and attribution of climate change through econometric methods," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-015, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    2. Walter Enders & Matthew T. Holt, 2014. "The Evolving Relationships between Agricultural and Energy Commodity Prices: A Shifting-Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 135-187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Barry K. Goodwin & Matthew T. Holt & Jeffrey P. Prestemon, 2021. "Semi-parametric models of spatial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2335-2361, November.
    4. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Co-breaking; Co-shifting; Hemispheric surface temperatures; Vector nonlinear model; Structural change; Shifting-mean vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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