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Global Temperature Trends

Author

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  • Trevor Breusch
  • Farshid Vahid

Abstract

Are global temperatures on a warming trend? It is difficult to be certain about trends when there is so much variation in the data and very high correlation from year to year. We investigate the question using statistical time series methods. Our analysis shows that the upward movement over the last 130-160 years is persistent and not explained by the high correlation, so it is best described as a trend. The warming trend becomes steeper after the mid-1970s, but there is no significant evidence for a break in trend in the late 1990s. Viewed from the perspective of 30 or 50 years ago, the temperatures recorded in most of the last decade lie above the confidence band of forecasts produced by a model that does not allow for a warming trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Trevor Breusch & Farshid Vahid, 2011. "Global Temperature Trends," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2011-4
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    File URL: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp4-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. W. J. Granger, 1988. "Models That Generate Trends," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 329-343, July.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew T. Holt & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2012-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Chen, Li & Gao, Jiti & Vahid, Farshid, 2022. "Global temperatures and greenhouse gases: A common features approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 240-254.
    3. Holt, Matthew T. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2020. "Global hemispheric temperatures and co-shifting: A vector shifting-mean autoregressive analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 198-215.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land and ocean temperatures; deterministic and stochastic trends; persistence; piecewise linear trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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