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Time trend estimation with breaks in temperature time series

Author

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  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Navarra)

Abstract

This paper deals with the modelling of the global and northern and southern hemispheric anomaly temperature time series using a novel technique based on segmented trends and fractional integration. We use a procedure that permits us to estimate linear time trends and orders of integration at various subsamples, where the periods for the changing trends are endogenously determined by the model. Moreover, we use a non-parametric approach (Bloomfield, 1973) for modelling the I(0) deviation term. The results show that the three series (global, northern and southern temperatures) can be well described in terms of fractional integration with the orders of integration around 0.5 in the three cases. The coefficients associated to the time trends are statistically significant in all subsamples for the three series, especially during the final part of the sample, giving then some support to the global warming theories.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Time trend estimation with breaks in temperature time series," Faculty Working Papers 09/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    • Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp0908
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    File URL: http://www.unav.edu/documents/10174/6546776/1227197183_WP_09_08_Alana.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Estrada & Benjamín Martínez-López & Cecilia Conde & Carlos Gay-García, 2012. "The new national climate change documents of Mexico: what do the regional climate change scenarios represent?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 1029-1046, February.
    2. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2019. "Temperatures across Europe: evidence of time trends," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 355-364, December.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Nieves Carmona-González, 2020. "Particulate Matter 10 (PM10): Persistence and Trends in Eight European Capitals," CESifo Working Paper Series 8402, CESifo.
    4. Matthew T. Holt & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2012-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "Linear and segmented trends in sea surface temperature data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 1531-1546, July.
    6. Holt, Matthew T. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2020. "Global hemispheric temperatures and co-shifting: A vector shifting-mean autoregressive analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 198-215.
    7. Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, 2019. "Breaks, Trends and the Attribution of Climate Change: A Time-Series Analysis," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 42(83), pages 1-31.
    8. Pierre Perron & Eduardo Zorita & Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, 2017. "Extracting and Analyzing the Warming Trend in Global and Hemispheric Temperatures," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 711-732, September.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "US Sea Level Data: Time Trends and Persistence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8274, CESifo.

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