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Human activities and global warming: a cointegration analysis

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  • Liu, Hui
  • Rodríguez, Gabriel

Abstract

Using econometric tools for selecting I(1) and I(2) trends, we found the existence of static long-run steady-state and dynamic long-run steady-state relations between temperature and radiative forcing of solar irradiance and a set of three greenhouse gases series. Estimates of the adjustment coefficients indicate that temperature series is error correcting around 5-65% of the disequilibria each year, depending on the type of long-run relation. The estimates of the I(1) and I(2) trends indicate that they are driven by linear combinations of the three greenhouse gases and their loadings indicate strong impact on the temperature series. The equilibrium temperature change for a doubling of carbon dioxide is between 2.15 and 3.4 C, which is in agreement with past literature and the report of the IPCC in 2001 using 15 different general circulation models.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Hui & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2005. "Human activities and global warming: a cointegration analysis," MPRA Paper 9939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9939
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Morana & Giacomo Sbrana, 2017. "Temperature anomalies, radiative forcing and ENSO," Working Paper series 17-06, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Wang, Ke & Zhang, Jianjun & Cai, Bofeng & Yu, Shengmin, 2019. "Emission factors of fugitive methane from underground coal mines in China: Estimation and uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 273-282.
    3. Matthew T. Holt & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2012-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, "undated". "Detection and attribution of climate change through econometric methods," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-015, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    5. Holt, Matthew T. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2020. "Global hemispheric temperatures and co-shifting: A vector shifting-mean autoregressive analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 198-215.
    6. Torben Schmith & Søren Johansen & Peter Thejll, 2011. "Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods," CREATES Research Papers 2011-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. David B. Stephenson & Alemtsehai A. Turasie & Donald P. Cummins, 2023. "More Accurate Climate Trend Attribution by Using Cointegrating Vector Time Series Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-18, August.
    8. White Halbert & Granger Clive W.J., 2011. "Consideration of Trends in Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, February.
    9. Alexiadis, Alessio, 2007. "Global warming and human activity: A model for studying the potential instability of the carbon dioxide/temperature feedback mechanism," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 243-256.
    10. Luca Benati, 2023. "Forecasting Global Temperatures by Exploiting Cointegration with Radiative Forcing," Diskussionsschriften dp2308, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global warming; Radiative forcing; Cointegration; I(1) process; I(2) process; Unit roots;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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