Temperature anomalies, radiative forcing and ENSO
The paper investigates the linkages between temperature anomalies, radiative forcing and ENSO. By means of a new flexible trend modeling approach, we uncover a nonlinear linkage between radiative forcing and global temperature anomalies. The nonlinear trend closely tracks the low frequency evolution in temperature anomalies, also accounting for the mid-end 1990s level switch, the 1998-2013 "warming hiatus" and the current steepening in trend temperatures. Radiative forcing is also found to account for trend dynamics in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), therefore providing support for the view that global warming might affect natural variability oscillations such as ENSO, and therefore enhance their disruptive effects. We also document the feature of time-varying volatility of temperature anomalies and SOI, which is well described by an IGARCH process. By means of a new dynamic conditional correlation model (SP-DCC), we finally document the presence of time-varying conditional correlations relating temperature anomalies across various zones and SOI. The correlation pattern is found to be consistent with the effects of ENSO events in the Tropics and their teleconnections.
|Date of creation:||10 Feb 2017|
|Date of revision:||10 Feb 2017|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Piazza Ateneo Nuovo, 1 Milano 20126|
Phone: +39 02 6448 3089
Fax: +39 02 6448 3085
Web page: http://dems.unimib.it
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William Rea & Marco Reale & Jennifer Brown, 2011. "Long memory in temperature reconstructions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 247-265, August.
- David H. Douglass & John R. Christy, 2009. "Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth," Energy & Environment, , vol. 20(1), pages 177-189, January.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Yoosoon Chang & Robert K. Kaufmann & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park & Sungkeun Park, 2015. "Time Series Analysis of Global Temperature Distributions: Identifying and Estimating Persistent Features in Temperature Anomalies," Working Papers 1513, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 25 Jul 2016.
- Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Morana, Claudio, 2009.
"Modelling long memory and structural breaks in conditional variances: An adaptive FIGARCH approach,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1577-1592, August.
- Richard T. Baillie & Claudio Morana, 2007. "Modeling Long Memory and Structural Breaks in Conditional Variances: an Adaptive FIGARCH Approach," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 11-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Richard T. Baillie & Claudio Morana, 2007. "Modeling Long Memory and Structural Breaks in Conditional Variances: An Adaptive FIGARCH Approach," Working Papers 593, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Hafner, Christian M., 2008. "Temporal aggregation of multivariate GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 467-483, January.
- Hafner, C.M., 2004. "Temporal aggregation of multivariate GARCH processes," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Christian M. Hafner, 2004. "Temporal aggregation of multivariate GARCH processes," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 538, Econometric Society.
- Robert Kaufmann & Heikki Kauppi & Michael Mann & James Stock, 2013. "Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 729-743, June.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
- Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Mann, 2011. "On long range dependence in global surface temperature series," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 267-276, August.
- Mayadunne, Geetha & Evans, Merran & Inder, Brett, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Shock Persistence in Economic Time Series," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(213), pages 145-156, June.
- Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2012. "A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 574-599, 08.
- Felix Pretis & Michael Mann & Robert Kaufmann, 2015. "Testing competing models of the temperature hiatus: assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 705-718, August.
- Terence Mills, 2013. "Breaks and unit roots in global and hemispheric temperatures: an updated analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 745-755, June.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Chung, Sang-Kuck, 2002. "Modeling and forecasting from trend-stationary long memory models with applications to climatology," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 215-226.
- Hui Liu & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2003. "Human Activities and Global Warming: A Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 0307E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
- Liu, Hui & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2005. "Human activities and global warming: a cointegration analysis," MPRA Paper 9939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ross R. McKitrick & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 2014. "HAC robust trend comparisons among climate series with possible level shifts," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 528-547, November.
- Claudio, Morana, 2015. "Semiparametric Estimation of Multivariate GARCH Models," Working Papers 317, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 10 Dec 2015.
- Claudio Morana, 2017. "Semiparametric Estimation of Multivariate GARCH Models," Working Paper Series 17-02, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2006. "A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 381-409, 05.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)