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A multicointegration model of global climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Bruns, Stephan B.
  • Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna
  • Stern, David I.

Abstract

We model the role of the ocean in climate change, using the concept of multicointegration. Surface temperature and radiative forcing cointegrate and the accumulated cointegration disequilibria represent the change in Earth system heat content, which is predominantly stored in the ocean. System heat content in turn cointegrates with surface temperature. Using a multicointegrating I(2) model, we find that the climate sensitivity is 2.8°C and the rate of adjustment to equilibrium is realistically slow. These results contrast strongly with those from I(1) cointegration models and are more consistent with global circulation models. We also estimate Earth system heat content as a latent variable for the full period, 1850-2014, and this predicted heat content cointegrates with available ocean heat content observations for 1940-2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruns, Stephan B. & Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Stern, David I., 2018. "A multicointegration model of global climate change," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 336, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2018-02-10 07:11:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David I. Stern, 2005. "A Three-Layer Atmosphere-Ocean Time Series Model of Global Climate Change," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0510, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:eee:ecolet:v:168:y:2018:i:c:p:144-146 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robert K. Kaufmann & David I. Stern, 2004. "A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0411, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    4. Travaglini, Guido, 2010. "Dynamic Econometric Testing of Climate Change and of its Causes," MPRA Paper 23600, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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