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Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries

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  • Dergiades, Theologos
  • Kaufmann, Robert K.
  • Panagiotidis, Theodore

Abstract

We test two hypotheses that are derived from the anthropogenic theory of climate change. The first postulates that a growing population and increasing economic activity increase anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active gases relative to natural sources and sinks, and this alters global biogeochemical cycles in a way that increases the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature. The second postulates that the increase in the persistence of radiative forcing transmits a stochastic trend to the time series for temperature. Results indicate that the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature changes from I(0) to I(1) during the last 500 years and that the I(1) fingerprint in radiative forcing can be detected in a statistically measureable fashion in surface temperature. As such, our results are consistent with the physical mechanisms that underlie the theory of anthropogenic climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 67-85.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:76:y:2016:i:c:p:67-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2015.11.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:phsmap:v:509:y:2018:i:c:p:121-139 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Gupta, Rangan & Das, Sonali, 2018. "Predicting global temperature anomaly: A definitive investigation using an ensemble of twelve competing forecasting models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 121-139.
    3. Yoosoon Chang & Robert K. Kaufmann & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park & Sungkeun Park, 2015. "Evaluating trends in time series of distributions: A spatial fingerprint of human effects on climate," Working Papers 1622, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 19 Dec 2016.
    4. repec:kap:enreec:v:73:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10640-018-0257-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:1204-:d:141339 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:5:p:869-:d:99306 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. David I. Stern, 2004. "A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0406, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    8. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:12:p:4739-:d:189998 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Amaryllis Mavragani & Ioannis E. Nikolaou & Konstantinos P. Tsagarakis, 2016. "Open Economy, Institutional Quality, and Environmental Performance: A Macroeconomic Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(7), pages 1-13, June.
    10. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:994-:d:138450 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global climate change; Radiative forcing; Surface temperature;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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