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Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008

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  • Kaufmann, R. K.
  • Kauppi, H.
  • Mann, M. L.
  • Stock, James H.

Abstract

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaufmann, R. K. & Kauppi, H. & Mann, M. L. & Stock, James H., 2011. "Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008," Scholarly Articles 29071926, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:29071926
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Kim, Jae-Young, 2006. "Tests for Cointegration Breakdown Over a Short Time Period," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 379-394, October.
    2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    3. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    4. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-176, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard S.J. Tol & Francisco Estrada, 2013. "Estimating the Global Impacts of Climate Variability and Change During the 20th Century," Working Paper Series 6213, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Chang, Yoosoon & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y. & Park, Sungkeun, 2020. "Evaluating trends in time series of distributions: A spatial fingerprint of human effects on climate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 274-294.
    3. Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 67-85.
    4. Pretis, Felix, 2020. "Econometric modelling of climate systems: The equivalence of energy balance models and cointegrated vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 256-273.
    5. Bruns, Stephan B. & Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Stern, David I., 2020. "A multicointegration model of global climate change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 175-197.
    6. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Leirvik, Thomas & Storelvmo, Trude, 2020. "Econometric estimates of Earth’s transient climate sensitivity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 6-32.
    7. Michieka, Nyakundi M. & Fletcher, Jerald J., 2012. "An investigation of the role of China's urban population on coal consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 668-676.

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