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Long-Run Changes in Radiative Forcing and Surface Temperature: The Effect of Human Activity over the Last Five Centuries

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Abstract

We test two hypotheses that are derived from the anthropogenic theory of climate change. The first postulates that a growing population and increasing economic activity increase anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active gases relative to natural sources and sinks, and this alters global biogeochemical cycles in a way that increases the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature. The second postulates that the increase in the persistence of radiative forcing transmits a stochastic trend to the time series for temperature. Results indicate that the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature changes from I(0) to I(1) during the last 500 years and that the I(1) fingerprint in radiative forcing can be detected in a statistically measureable fashion in surface temperature. As such, our results are consistent with the physical mechanisms that underlie the theory of anthropogenic climate change.

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  • Theologos Dergiades & Robert K. Kaufmann & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2019. "Long-Run Changes in Radiative Forcing and Surface Temperature: The Effect of Human Activity over the Last Five Centuries," Discussion Paper Series 2019_06, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Nov 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2019_06
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    2. Chang, Yoosoon & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y. & Park, Sungkeun, 2020. "Evaluating trends in time series of distributions: A spatial fingerprint of human effects on climate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 274-294.
    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2019. "Time Trends and Persistence in the Global CO2 Emissions Across Europe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 213-228, May.
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    6. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús & Ramos, Andrey, 2023. "Trends in temperature data: micro-foundations of their nature," UC3M Working papers. Economics 39045, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    7. Zerbo, Eléazar & Darné, Olivier, 2019. "On the stationarity of CO2 emissions in OECD and BRICS countries: A sequential testing approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 319-332.
    8. Lichun Xiong & Chang Yu & Martin De Jong & Fengting Wang & Baodong Cheng, 2017. "Economic Transformation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region: Is It Undergoing the Environmental Kuznets Curve?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-15, May.
    9. Bruns, Stephan B. & Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Stern, David I., 2020. "A multicointegration model of global climate change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 175-197.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global climate change; radiative forcing; surface temperature.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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