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A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Stephan B. Bruns

    (Department of Economics, University of Göttingen, Germany)

  • Zsuzsanna Csereklyei

    (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)

  • David I. Stern

    (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)

Abstract

We model the role of the ocean in climate change, using the concept of multicointegration. Surface temperature and radiative forcing cointegrate and the accumulated cointegration disequilibria represent the change in Earth system heat content, which is predominantly stored in the ocean. System heat content in turn cointegrates with surface temperature. Using a multicointegrating I(2) model, we find that the climate sensitivity is 2.8ºC and the rate of adjustment to equilibrium is realistically slow. These results contrast strongly with those from I(1) cointegration models and are more consistent with global circulation models. We also estimate Earth system heat content as a latent variable for the full period, 1850-2014, and this predicted heat content cointegrates with available ocean heat content observations for 1940-2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan B. Bruns & Zsuzsanna Csereklyei & David I. Stern, 2018. "A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change," CCEP Working Papers 1801, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:ccepwp:1801
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert K. Kaufmann & David I. Stern, 2004. "A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0411, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:eee:ecolet:v:168:y:2018:i:c:p:144-146 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Travaglini, Guido, 2010. "Dynamic Econometric Testing of Climate Change and of its Causes," MPRA Paper 23600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. David I. Stern, 2005. "A Three-Layer Atmosphere-Ocean Time Series Model of Global Climate Change," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0510, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate sensitivity; econometrics; ocean heat content;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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