IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Trade shocks from BRIC to South Africa: A global VAR analysis

Author Info

  • Çakır, Mustafa Yavuz
  • Kabundi, Alain

Abstract

This paper studies the trade linkages between South Africa and the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. We apply a global vector autoregressive model (global VAR) to investigate the degree of trade linkages and shock transmission between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the period 1995Q1–2009Q4. The model contains 32 countries and has two different estimations: the first one consists of 24 countries and one region, with the 8 countries in the euro area treated as a single economy; and the second estimation contains 20 countries and two regions, with the BRIC and the euro area countries respectively treated as a single economy. The results suggest that trade linkages exist between our focus economies; however the magnitude differs between countries. Shocks from each BRIC country are shown to have considerable impact on South African real imports and output.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313000606
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 190-202

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:190-202
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Keywords: BRICS; Trade linkages; Global VAR; Trade shocks;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
  • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
  • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ariel Burstein & Christopher Kurz & Linda Tesar, 2008. "Trade, Production Sharing, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 13731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52.
  3. Forbes, Kristin & Chinn, Menzie, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6z74b3x7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  4. Doepke, Matthias & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2007. "Occupational Choice and the Spirit of Capitalism," IZA Discussion Papers 2949, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Easterly, William, 2007. "Inequality does cause underdevelopment: Insights from a new instrument," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 755-776, November.
  6. Simon J. Evenett, 2007. "EU Commercial Policy in a Multipolar Trading System," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-15, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  7. McDonald, Scott & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2008. "Asian Growth and Trade Poles: India, China, and East and Southeast Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 210-234, February.
  8. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Yamashita, Nobuaki, 2006. "Production fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 233-256, December.
  9. Deaton, A. & Zaidi, S., 1999. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," Papers 192, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  10. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2008. "What Is Middle Class about the Middle Classes around the World?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
  11. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4373, August.
  14. Milanovic, Branko & Shlomo Yitzhaki, 2001. "Decomposing world income distribution : does the world have a middle class ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2562, The World Bank.
  15. AkIn, Cigdem & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2008. "Changing nature of North-South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-28, February.
  16. World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4367, August.
  17. Gu, Jing & Humphrey, John & Messner, Dirk, 2008. "Global Governance and Developing Countries: The Implications of the Rise of China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 274-292, February.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  19. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis, 2008. "Is the developing world catching up ? global convergence and national rising dispersion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4733, The World Bank.
  20. Anthony B. Atkinson & Andrea Brandolini, 2011. "On the identification of the “middle class”," Working Papers 217, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  21. Jenkins, Rhys & Edwards, Chris, 2006. "The economic impacts of China and India on sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and prospects," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 207-225, April.
  22. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
  23. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 1, pages 1-20.
  24. Smith, Ron, 2009. "EMU and the Lucas Critique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-750, July.
  25. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, 08.
  26. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Can vertical specialization explain the growth of world trade?," Staff Reports 96, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  28. Easterly, William, 2001. "The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 317-35, December.
  29. Nancy Birdsall, 2010. "The (Indispensable) Middle Class in Developing Countries; or, The Rich and the Rest, Not the Poor and the Rest," Working Papers 207, Center for Global Development.
  30. Kabundi, Alain & Loots, Elsabe, 2007. "Co-movement between South Africa and the Southern African Development Community: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 737-748, September.
  31. Barro, Robert J., 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Scholarly Articles 3451297, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  32. Antonio Estache & D. Leipziger, 2009. "Stuck in the Middle: Is Fiscal Policy Failing the Middle Class?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/44102, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  33. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  34. Vivek Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "The Implications Of South African Economic Growth For The Rest Of Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(2), pages 229-242, 06.
  35. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  36. Joe C. Davis & John H. Huston, 1992. "The Shrinking Middle-Income Class: A Multivariate Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 277-285, Summer.
  37. Lennart Petersson, 2005. "Export Diversification And Intra-Industry Trade In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 785-802, December.
  38. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  39. Murray Leibbrandt & Ingrid Woolard & Arden Finn & Jonathan Argent, 2010. "Trends in South African Income Distribution and Poverty since the Fall of Apartheid," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 101, OECD Publishing.
  40. Ballabriga, Fernando & Sebastian, Miguel & Valles, Javier, 1999. "European asymmetries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 233-253, August.
  41. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
  42. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as in new window


Cited by:

  1. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova & Meng Qingwei, 2014. "Working Paper 198 - Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?," Working Paper Series 2104, African Development Bank.
  2. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova & Qingwei Meng, 2014. "Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1073, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Annari de Waal & Renee van Eyden, 2013. "The impact of economic shocks in the rest of the world on South Africa: Evidence from a global VAR," Working Papers 201328, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  4. Daniel Zerfu Gurara & Mthuli Ncube, 2013. "Working Paper 183 - Global Economic Spillovers to Africa- A GVAR Approach," Working Paper Series 981, African Development Bank.
  5. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Minou, Chrysanthi, 2015. "System estimation of GVAR with two dominants and network theory: Evidence for BRICs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 604-616.
  6. Adrino Mazenda, 2016. "The Effect of BRICS Trade Relations on South Africa’s Growth," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2016/11, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  7. Rudkin, Simon & Wong, Sen Min, 2015. "South East Asian Financial Linkages and the Changing Role of China: Insights from a Global VAR," MPRA Paper 65001, University Library of Munich, Germany.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:190-202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.