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Working Paper 183 - Global Economic Spillovers to Africa- A GVAR Approach

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We develop a global vector autoregressive model (GVAR) to analyze the globalgrowth spillover e¤ects on Africa. The model contains 46 African countries and30 developed and emerging market countries, covering 90 percent of the world econ-omy. The results suggest that there is a signi cant growth spillover e¤ect to Africaneconomies from both the Euro zone economies and BRICs. In terms of the mag-nitudes, a percentage decline in Euro zone growth rate could lead to 0.34 to 0.6percentage point drop in African countries growth rates while an equivalent shockin BRICs growth could dent African growth rate to the tune of 0.09 to 0.23 per-centage points. In both cases, the adverse e¤ects on fragile and resource dependenteconomies are closer to the upper bound while the lower bounds apply for the morediversi ed African countries. The paper also looks at the spillover e¤ects of the US,Euro, UK, and Japan (G4) quantitative easing (QE). The results indicate that theQE could have a mild inationary e¤ect in addition to putting pressure on exchangerates to appreciate.

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Paper provided by African Development Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 981.

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Date of creation: 23 Sep 2013
Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:981
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  1. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
  2. Çakır, Mustafa Yavuz & Kabundi, Alain, 2013. "Trade shocks from BRIC to South Africa: A global VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 190-202.
  3. Athanasios Vamvakidis & Vivek B. Arora, 2001. "The Impact of U.S. Economic Growthon the Rest of the World; How Much Does it Matter?," IMF Working Papers 01/119, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Tamim Bayoumi & Francis Vitek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Model Spillovers and Their Discontents," IMF Working Papers 13/4, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Boschi, Melisso & Girardi, Alessandro, 2011. "The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1235-1246, May.
  6. Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2010. "Stress-testing euro area corporate default probabilities using a global macroeconomic model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 64-78, June.
  7. Cashin, P. & Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M., 2012. "The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1250, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye & Dale F. Gray & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Hiroko Oura & Qianying Chen, 2010. "International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress," IMF Working Papers 10/124, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
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