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The Contribution Of Domestic, Regional And International Factors To Latin America'S Business Cycle

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  • Melisso Boschi
  • Alessandro Girardi

Abstract

This paper quantifies the relative contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to the fluctuation of domestic output in six key Latin American (LA) countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Using quarterly data over the period 1980:1-2003:4, a multi-variate, multi-country time series model was estimated to study the economic interdependence among LA countries and, in addition, between each of them and the three world largest industrial economies: the US, the Euro Area and Japan. Falsifying a common suspicion, it is shown that the proportion of LA countries’ domestic output variability explained by industrial countries’ factors is modest. By contrast, domestic and regional factors account for the main share of output variability at all simulation horizons. The implications for the choice of the exchange rate regime are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The Contribution Of Domestic, Regional And International Factors To Latin America'S Business Cycle," CAMA Working Papers 2008-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2008-33
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Fiscal spillovers in the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 84.1-84.16.
    2. Melisso Boschi & Massimiliano Marzo & Simone Salotti, 2015. "Domestic versus international determinants of European business cycles: a GVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 403-421, September.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2016. "Business cycles, international trade and capital flows: evidence from Latin America," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 231-252, March.
    4. Flores, Jairo, 2015. "Transmisión de Choques de Política Monetaria de Estados Unidos sobre América Latina: Un Enfoque GVAR," Working Papers 2015-018, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    5. Ramirez, Francisco A., 2009. "Perturbaciones Internacionales y Fluctuaciones del Producto Interno Bruto en una Economía en Desarrollo: Evidencia de República Dominicana para el Período 1998-2008
      [International Shocks and GDP fl
      ," MPRA Paper 38987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Fatma Erdem & Erdal Özmen, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1041-1058, November.
    7. repec:udt:wpbsdt:2012-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George & Livada, Alexandra, 2016. "Business cycle synchronisation in EMU: Can fiscal policy bring member-countries closer?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 551-563.
    9. Daniel Zerfu Gurara & Mthuli Ncube, 2013. "Working Paper 183 - Global Economic Spillovers to Africa- A GVAR Approach," Working Paper Series 981, African Development Bank.
    10. repec:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:2:p:320-331 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Melisso Boschi, 2012. "Long- and short-run determinants of capital flows to Latin America: a long-run structural GVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1041-1071, December.
    12. repec:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2017:i:4:p:1095-1106 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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