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International Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach


  • Fabio C. Bagliano
  • Claudio Morana


In this paper international comovements among a set of key real and nominal macroeconomic variables for the G-7 countries have been investigated for the 1980- 2005 period, using a Factor Vector Autoregressive approach. We present evidence that comovements in macroeconomic variables do not concern only real activity, but are an important feature also of stock market returns, in‡ation rates, interest rates and, to a smaller extent, monetary aggregates. Both common sources of shocks and similar transmission mechanisms explain international comovements, with the only exception of Japan, where the idiosyncratic features seem to dominate. Finally, concerning the origin of global shocks, evidence of both global supply-side and demand-side disturbances is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 32, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  • Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:32

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    Cited by:

    1. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2013. "Business cycles and economic crisis in Greece (1960–2011): A long run equilibrium analysis in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 804-816.
    2. Carlos A. Medel, 2016. "Un análisis de la capacidad predictiva del precio del cobre sobre la inflación global," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 128-153, August.
    3. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2012. "Macro-Finance Interactions in the US: A Global Perspective," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    4. Claudio Morana, 2008. "International stock markets comovements: the role of economic and financial integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 333-359, September.
    5. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Kim, David & Kim, Won Joong & Park, Cyn-Young, 2015. "A factor-augmented VAR analysis of business cycle synchronization in east Asia and implications for a regional currency union," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 449-468.
    6. Alexei Onatski & Francisco Ruge‐Murcia, 2013. "Factor Analysis Of A Large Dsge Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 903-928, September.
    7. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "Business cycle comovement in the G-7: common shocks or common transmission mechanisms?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(18), pages 2327-2345.
    8. Carlos A. Medel & Michael Pedersen & Pablo M. Pincheira, 2016. "The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 120-146, June.
    9. Naser, Hanan & Ahmed, Abdul Rashid, 2016. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Performance in Emerging Economies: Some Evidence using FAVAR Models," MPRA Paper 77868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13.
    11. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Factor vector autoregressive estimation: a new approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(1), pages 15-23, June.
    12. Belke, Ansgar & Rees, Andreas, 2014. "Globalisation and monetary policy—A FAVAR analysis for the G7 and the eurozone," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 306-321.
    13. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Does global liquidity drive commodity prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 224-234.
    14. Selover, David D. & Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2015. "Examining industrial interdependence between Japan and South Korea: A FAVAR approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 67-87.
    15. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "A New Approach to Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation with an Application to Large-Scale Macroeconometric Modelling," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 28, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    16. Ansgar Belke & Andreas Rees, 2009. "The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policy Makers - Rising Challenges for Central Banks," Ruhr Economic Papers 0135, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    17. repec:tur:wpaper:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2011. "The Effects of the US Economic and Financial Crises on Euro Area Convergence," Chapters,in: The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "International shocks and national house prices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 14-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    20. repec:zbw:rwirep:0135 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Belke, Ansgar & Rees, Andreas, 2009. "The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policy Makers - Rising Challenges for Central Banks," Ruhr Economic Papers 135, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    22. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Kim, David & Kim, Won Joong & Park, Cyn-Young, 2013. "A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia and Implications for a Regional Currency Union," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 385, Asian Development Bank.

    More about this item


    G7; international business cycle; factor vector autoregressive models; common factors.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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