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International Macroeconomic Dynamics: a Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach

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  • Fabio C. Bagliano
  • Claudio Morana

Abstract

In this paper international comovements among a set of key real and nominal macroeconomic variables for the G-7 countries have been investigated for the 1980-2005 period, using a Factor Vector Autoregressive approach. We present evidence that comovements in macroeconomic variables do not concern only real activity, but are an important feature also of stock market returns, inflation rates, interest rates and, to a smaller extent, monetary aggregates. Both common sources of shocks and similar transmission mechanisms explain international comovements, with the only exception of Japan, where the idiosyncratic features seem to dominate. Finally, concerning the origin of global shocks, evidence of both global supply-side and demand-side disturbances is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics: a Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach," ICER Working Papers 41-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:41-2006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    G7; international business cycle; factor vector autoregressive models; common factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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