IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v83y2019icp127-140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The global effects of productivity gains in Asian emerging economies

Author

Listed:
  • Dumrongrittikul, Taya
  • Anderson, Heather
  • Vahid, Farshid

Abstract

This paper investigates international responses of key macroeconomic variables to simultaneous shocks to productivity in the traded sector in eight Asian emerging and developing countries. We use panel estimation techniques to construct component sub-models in a thirty country global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. We identify the shocks by using sign restricted impulse responses. We find that increases in traded-sector productivity in Asian emerging and developing countries have a positive effect on economic growth and international trade for most countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather & Vahid, Farshid, 2019. "The global effects of productivity gains in Asian emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 127-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:83:y:2019:i:c:p:127-140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.02.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999318310770
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.02.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    2. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    3. Alessandro Rebucci & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-75, January.
    4. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
    5. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    6. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    7. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    8. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    9. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    10. Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather M., 2016. "How do shocks to domestic factors affect real exchange rates of Asian developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 67-85.
    11. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, July.
    12. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    13. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-20.
    14. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2014. "The International Dimension Of Productivity And Demand Shocks In The Us Economy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 153-176, February.
    15. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    16. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460, Decembrie.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    18. Inoue,Tomoo & Kaya,Demet & Ohshige,Hitoshi, 2015. "The impact of China?s slowdown on the Asia Pacific region : an application of the GVAR model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7442, The World Bank.
    19. Taya Dumrongrittikul, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate Movements in Developed and Developing Economies: A Reinterpretation of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 537-553, December.
    20. Luis M. Cubeddu & Alexander Culiuc & Ghada Fayad & Yuan Gao & Kalpana Kochhar & Annette J Kyobe & Ceyda Oner & Roberto Perrelli & Sarah Sanya & Evridiki Tsounta & Zhongxia Zhang, 2014. "Emerging Markets in Transition; Growth Prospects and Challenges," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/6, International Monetary Fund.
    21. John Page, 1994. "The East Asian Miracle: Four Lessons for Development Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 219-282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Han, Fei & Hee Ng, Thiam, 2011. "ASEAN-5 Macroeconomic Forecasting Using a GVAR Model," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 76, Asian Development Bank.
    23. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
    24. Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2009. "Technology Shocks And Robust Sign Restrictions In A Euro Area Svar," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 727-750, August.
    25. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    26. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    27. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
    28. Taya Dumrongrittikul & Heather M. Anderson, 2013. "Do Policy-Related Shocks Affect Real Exchange Rates of Asian Developing Countries?," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    29. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    30. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    31. Quibria, M.G., 2002. "Growth and Poverty: Lessons from the East Asian Miracle Revisited," MPRA Paper 2638, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long‐run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
    33. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 530-536, June.
    34. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    35. Edwards, Sebastian, 1988. "Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 311-341, November.
    36. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    37. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    38. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Aid for Trade flows and Poverty Reduction in Recipient-Countries," EconStor Preprints 213807, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Taya Dumrongrittikul & Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2014. "The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Perspective," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather M., 2016. "How do shocks to domestic factors affect real exchange rates of Asian developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 67-85.
    3. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    4. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    5. Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad & Taylor, Mark P., 2019. "Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 142-160.
    6. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2019. "The US oil supply revolution and the global economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1515-1546, November.
    7. Sona Benecka & Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher, 2018. "Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Working Papers 2018/04, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Benecká, Soňa & Fadejeva, Ludmila & Feldkircher, Martin, 2020. "The impact of euro Area monetary policy on Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1310-1333.
    9. Inoue,Tomoo & Kaya,Demet & Ohshige,Hitoshi, 2015. "The impact of China?s slowdown on the Asia Pacific region : an application of the GVAR model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7442, The World Bank.
    10. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    11. Dees, Stéphane, 2016. "Credit, asset prices and business cycles at the global level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 139-152.
    12. Chisiridis, Konstantinos & Mouratidis, Kostas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "The north-south divide, the euro and the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    13. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2014. "Phillips curve shocks and real exchange rate fluctuations: SVAR evidence," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 11/2014, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    14. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2020. "Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Reininger, 2014. "International Transmission of Credit Shocks: Evidence from Global Vector Autoregression Model," Working Papers 2014/05, Latvijas Banka.
    16. Moisă ALTAR & Adrian IFRIM & Adam-Nelu ALTAR - SAMUEL, 2015. "Eastern Europe In The World Economy : A Global Var Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-26, September.
    17. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    18. Fadejeva, Ludmila & Feldkircher, Martin & Reininger, Thomas, 2017. "International spillovers from Euro area and US credit and demand shocks: A focus on emerging Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-25.
    19. Mala Raghavan & Faisal Khan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2024. "Agri‐food trade channel and the ASEAN macroeconomic impacts from output and price shocks," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 5-26, January.
    20. Britta Gehrke & Fang Yao, 2016. "Persistence and volatility of real exchange rates: the role of supply shocks revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:83:y:2019:i:c:p:127-140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.