IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/ifweej/5582.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem
  • Holly, Sean
  • Dees, Stephane
  • Smith, L. Vanessa

Abstract

This paper presents tests of long run macroeconomic relations involving interest rates, equity, prices and exchange rates suggested by arbitrage in financial and goods markets. It uses the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to test for long run restrictions in each country/region conditioning on the rest of the world. Bootstrapping is used to compute both the empirical distribution of the impulse responses and the log-likelihood ratio statistic for over-identifying restrictions. The paper also examines the speed with which adjustments to the long run relations take place via the persistence profiles. It finds strong evidence in favour of a long run version of uncovered interest parity and to a lesser extent the Fisher equation across a number of countries, but the test results for the purchasing power parity relation are much weaker. Also the transmission of shocks and subsequent adjustments in financial markets are much faster than those in goods markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 1, pages 1-20.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:5582
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2007-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2007-3
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/18001/1/economics_2007-3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hashem Pesaran, M., 2007. "A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 312-355, May.
    3. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    4. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-253, March.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    6. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    8. Lothian, James R. & Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Uncovered interest-rate parity over the past two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 448-473, April.
    9. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park, 2003. "A Sieve Bootstrap For The Test Of A Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 379-400, July.
    10. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    11. Edward Nelson, 2005. "Monetary Policy Neglect and the Great Inflation in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 24-49, September.
    13. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    14. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    15. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460.
    16. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-118, February.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    18. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    19. Chang, Yoosoon & Park, Joon Y. & Song, Kevin, 2006. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 703-739, August.
    20. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 530-536, June.
    21. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    22. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-1357, December.
    23. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    24. Park, Joon Y., 2002. "An Invariance Principle For Sieve Bootstrap In Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 469-490, April.
    25. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-399, October.
    26. Edwin Choi & Peter Hall, 2000. "Bootstrap confidence regions computed from autoregressions of arbitrary order," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(2), pages 461-477.
    27. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:530-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Paparoditis, Efstathios, 1996. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive and Moving Average Parameter Estimates of Infinite Order Vector Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 277-296, May.
    29. Li, Hongyi & Maddala, G. S., 1997. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 297-318, October.
    30. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    31. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    2. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    3. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    4. Koukouritakis, Minoas & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P. & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2015. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European countries: A global VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 129-154.
    5. Mohaddes Kamiar & Raissi Mehdi, 2013. "Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 99-131, August.
    6. Burney, Nadeem A. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Alawadhi, Ahmad & Al-Musallam, Marwa, 2018. "The dynamics and determinants of Kuwait's long-run economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 289-304.
    7. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    8. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2013. "Oil exports and the Iranian economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 221-237.
    10. Assenmacher-Wesche, K. & Pesaran, M.H., 2008. "A VECX* Model of the Swiss Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0809, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad & Taylor, Mark P., 2019. "Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 142-160.
    12. Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "An Empirical Growth Model For Major Oil Exporters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Alessandro Rebucci & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-75, January.
    14. Lombardi, Marco J. & Galesi, Alessandro, 2009. "External shocks and international inflation linkages: a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1062, European Central Bank.
    15. Taya Dumrongrittikul & Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2014. "The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Perspective," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    16. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    17. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    18. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Kostas Mouratidis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "The North-South Divide, the Euro and the World," Working Papers 377, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    19. Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather & Vahid, Farshid, 2019. "The global effects of productivity gains in Asian emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 127-140.
    20. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global VAR; Fisher relationship; Uncovered Interest Rate Parity; Purchasing Power Parity; persistence profile;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:5582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.