IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

ASEAN-5 Macroeconomic Forecasting Using a GVAR Model


  • Han, Fei

    () (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Hee Ng, Thiam

    () (Asian Development Bank)


This paper examines and evaluates macroeconomic forecasts for the original ASEAN-5 members in the context of a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model covering 20 countries, grouped into nine countries/regions. After estimating the GVAR model, we generate 12 one-quarter-ahead forecasts for the next quarter including real GDP, inflation, short-term interest rates, real exchange rates, and real equity prices over the period 2009Q1–2011Q4, with four out-of-sample forecasts over the period 2009Q1–2009Q4. Forecast evaluation results based on the panel Diebold-Mariano (DM) tests show the GVAR forecasts tend to outperform forecasts based on the benchmark country-specific models, especially for short-term interest rates and real equity prices, emphasizing the interdependencies in the global financial market.

Suggested Citation

  • Han, Fei & Hee Ng, Thiam, 2011. "ASEAN-5 Macroeconomic Forecasting Using a GVAR Model," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 76, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0076

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Yap, Josef T. & Majuca, Ruperto P. & Park, Cyn-Young, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Discussion Papers DP 2010-11, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:tefoso:v:126:y:2018:i:c:p:194-206 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Quirapas, Mary Ann Joy Robles & Lin, Htet & Abundo, Michael Lochinvar Sim & Brahim, Sahara & Santos, Diane, 2015. "Ocean renewable energy in Southeast Asia: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 799-817.

    More about this item


    Macroeconomic Forecasting; Global vector autoregressive model (GVAR); Southeast Asia;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0076. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivan B. de Leon). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.