IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/569.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?

Author

Listed:
  • H. Guimbard
  • M. Le Goff

Abstract

The sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are excluded from the mega-deals, free trade agreements (FTA) currently under negotiations between several large economies (European Union – United States, European Union - Japan, China-Japan-South Korea…). As Sub-Saharan African exports remain dependent on these large markets, sub-Saharan African countries could undergo important economic impacts. Using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM), we find that mega-deals would have a negative impact on the welfare of SSA countries. Regional integration strengthening limited only to the implementation of a “Tripartite” FTA gathering 26 African countries, might limit these losses but could not overcome them. A continental regional trade agreement (RTA) involving all SSA countries would slightly counterbalance the negative impacts of the mega-deals. We also show that openness of SSA countries towards Asia could be a potential solution to avoid trade diversion.

Suggested Citation

  • H. Guimbard & M. Le Goff, 2015. "Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?," Working papers 569, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:569
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/working-paper_569_2015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch, 2013. "The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): Potentials, Problems and Perspectives," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(2), pages 49-60, August.
    2. Antoine Bouët & David Laborde, 2010. "Why is the Doha Development Agenda Failing? And What Can Be Done? A Computable General Equilibrium–Game Theoretical Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1486-1516, November.
    3. Lionel Fontagné & David Laborde & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2011. "An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements in the Six ACP Regions," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(2), pages 179-216, March.
    4. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    5. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
    6. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6497 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Nkendah, Robert, 2013. "Estimating the informal cross-border trade of agricultural and horticultural commodities between cameroon and its CEMAC neighbours," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-144.
    9. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6642.
    10. Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean & Mondher Mimouni & Xavier Pichot, 2012. "MAcMap-HS6 2007, an Exhaustive and Consistent Measure of Applied Protection in 2007," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 130, pages 99-122.
    11. Gouel, Christophe & Mitaritonna, Cristina & Ramos, Maria Priscila, 2011. "Sensitive products in the Doha negotiations: The case of European and Japanese market access," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2395-2403.
    12. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2013. "MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy," Working Papers 2013-39, CEPII research center.
    13. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008. "Assessing Applied Protection across the World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 850-863, November.
    14. Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Hanna Norberg & Olga Pindyuk & Patrick Tomberger, 2013. "Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment: An Economic Assessment," Economics working papers 2015-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    15. Caroline Lesser & Evdokia Moisé-Leeman, 2009. "Informal Cross-Border Trade and Trade Facilitation Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa," OECD Trade Policy Papers 86, OECD Publishing.
    16. Petri, Peter A., 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration," 2012: New Rules of Trade?, December 2012, San Diego, California 143184, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    17. Lionel Fontagné & Julien Gourdon & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?," CEPII Policy Brief 2013-01, CEPII research center.
    18. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Yvan Decreux & Jean-Louis Guérin & Sébastien Jean, 2002. "MIRAGE, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Trade Policy Analysis," Working Papers 2002-17, CEPII research center.
    19. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland, 2014. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP," CESifo Working Paper Series 5150, CESifo Group Munich.
    20. Peter A. Petri & Michael Plummer, 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: Policy Implications," Policy Briefs PB12-16, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Mega-deals; Africa.;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:569. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.