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An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements in the Six ACP Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Lionel Fontagné

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • David Laborde

    (IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute [Washington] - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR])

  • Cristina Mitaritonna

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

Abstract

This article provides a detailed analysis of the trade-related aspects of economic partnership agreement (EPA) negotiations for the six Africa-Caribbean-Pacific (ACP) negotiation groups including ECOWAS, CEMAC+, COMESA, SADC, CARIFORUM and Pacific. We use a partial equilibrium model--focusing on the demand side--at the HS6 level (covering 5,113 HS6 products). Two lists of sensitive products are constructed: focusing on the agricultural sectors and tariff revenue preservation. For the European Union (EU), EPAs must translate into 90% fully liberalised bilateral trade to be World Trade Organisation compatible. We use this criterion to simulate EPAs for each negotiating regional block. ACP exports to the EU are forecast to be 10% higher with EPAs, than under the generalised system of preference 'Everything But Arms' option. ACP countries, especially African ones, are forecast to lose an average of 71% of tariff revenues on EU imports in the long run. Imports from other regions of the world will continue to provide tariff revenues. Thus, if we compute tariff revenue losses on total ACP imports, losses are only 25% on average over the long run and as low as 19% if the product lists are optimised. The final impact depends on the importance of tariffs in government revenue and on potential compensatory effects. However, this long-term and less visible effect will depend mainly on the capacity of each ACP country to reorganise its fiscal base.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & David Laborde & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2011. "An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements in the Six ACP Regions," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00639868, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-00639868
    DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejq037
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan V. Deardorff & Rishi R. Sharma, 2021. "Exempted sectors in free trade agreements," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 284-310, February.
    2. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2021. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 321-348, June.
    3. Guimbard, Houssein & Le Goff, Maëlan, 2014. "Mega Deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?," Conference papers 332514, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2016. "From an Eroding Model to Questioned Trade Relationships: The European Union and Sub-Saharan Africa," Insight on Africa, , vol. 8(2), pages 81-95, July.
    5. Emanuel Ornelas, 2016. "Special and Differential Treatment for Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 5823, CESifo.
    6. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2020. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Working Papers hal-03008144, HAL.
    7. Parisa Aghajanzadeh-Darzi & Cecilia Bellora & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Anaïs Goburdhun, 2015. "Assessing EU trade preferences for developing countries' development and food security [Évaluation des préférences de l’UE sur les échanges commerciaux avec les pays en voie de développement : impa," Working Papers hal-01589957, HAL.
    8. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade policy reforms in the new agricultural context: Is regional integration a priority for Sub-Saharan African countries agricultural-led industrialization? Insights from a global computable general," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126546, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Tchoffo, Rodrigue, 2021. "Design of a Covid-19 model for environmental impact: From the partial equilibrium to the Computable General Equilibrium model," MPRA Paper 108920, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Jul 2021.
    11. Laurent Didier, 2016. "Accords de partenariat économique (APE) - SADC : le changement c'est maintenant," Post-Print hal-03546549, HAL.

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