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An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements in the Six ACP Regions

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  • Lionel Fontagné
  • David Laborde
  • Cristina Mitaritonna

Abstract

This article provides a detailed analysis of the trade-related aspects of economic partnership agreement (EPA) negotiations for the six Africa--Caribbean--Pacific (ACP) negotiation groups including ECOWAS, CEMAC+, COMESA, SADC, CARIFORUM and Pacific. We use a partial equilibrium model--focusing on the demand side--at the HS6 level (covering 5,113 HS6 products). Two lists of sensitive products are constructed: focusing on the agricultural sectors and tariff revenue preservation. For the European Union (EU), EPAs must translate into 90% fully liberalised bilateral trade to be World Trade Organisation compatible. We use this criterion to simulate EPAs for each negotiating regional block. ACP exports to the EU are forecast to be 10% higher with EPAs, than under the generalised system of preference 'Everything But Arms' option. ACP countries, especially African ones, are forecast to lose an average of 71% of tariff revenues on EU imports in the long run. Imports from other regions of the world will continue to provide tariff revenues. Thus, if we compute tariff revenue losses on total ACP imports, losses are only 25% on average over the long run and as low as 19% if the product lists are optimised. The final impact depends on the importance of tariffs in government revenue and on potential compensatory effects. However, this long-term and less visible effect will depend mainly on the capacity of each ACP country to reorganise its fiscal base. Copyright 2011 The author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & David Laborde & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2011. "An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements in the Six ACP Regions," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(2), pages 179-216, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:20:y:2011:i:2:p:179-216
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    Cited by:

    1. Emanuel Ornelas, 2016. "Special and Differential Treatment for Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 5823, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Parisa Aghajanzadeh-Darzi & Cecilia Bellora & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Anaïs Goburdhun, 2015. "Assessing EU trade preferences for developing countries' development and food security
      [Évaluation des préférences de l’UE sur les échanges commerciaux avec les pays en voie de développement : impa
      ," Working Papers hal-01589957, HAL.
    3. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    4. Houssein Guimbard & Maëlan Le Goff, 2014. "Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers 2014-28, CEPII research center.
    5. Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade policy reforms in the new agricultural context: Is regional integration a priority for Sub-Saharan African countries agricultural-led industrialization? Insights from a global computable general," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126546, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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