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Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?

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  • Houssein Guimbard
  • Maëlan Le Goff

Abstract

The sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are excluded from the mega-deals (EU-USA, EU-Japan, China-Japan-Korea…) under negotiations: they might however undergo important economic impacts, as their exports remain dependant from those large markets. Using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM), this paper find that mega-deals would have a negative impact on the welfare of SSA countries. Regional integration (the “Tripartite” FTA, a potential trade agreement gathering 26 African countries) in Africa might limit these losses but cannot overcome them. A continental RTA involving all SSA countries would slightly counterbalance the negative impact of the Mega deals. We also show that openness of African countries towards Asia could be a potential solution to avoid trade diversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Houssein Guimbard & Maëlan Le Goff, 2014. "Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers 2014-28, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-28
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade; Mega Deals; Africa;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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