A De Facto Asian-Currency Unit Bloc in East Asia: It Has Been There but We Did Not Look for It
Pegging in a coordinated way to a regional basket currency is considered by many as optimal for east-Asian countries. By contrast, according to existing empirical studies, these countries have most often relied on non-cooperative United States dollar or G3 pegs. We show for the first time that by the late 1990s, with some reversals, a majority of east-Asian countries had already moved, de facto, away from the dollar peg and started targeting a basket, including east-Asian currencies (an “Asian Currency Unit”). Common-shock or market-based interpretations of such moves are ruled out since we document that, with few exceptions, countries in the region have in reality stuck to fixed exchange rates. We obtain such results using a Markov-switching estimation benchmarked against Bai-Perron structural break tests for the synthesis model of Frankel and Wei (2007), which augments the inference about currency weights in a basket with the weight on exchange-market pressure. In order to measure the latter, the forward positions of central banks in the foreign exchange market are taken into account.
|Date of creation:||14 Jan 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: (81-3) 3593-5571
Web page: http://www.adbi.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Masahiro Kawai, 2008. "Toward A Regional Exchange Rate Regime In East Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103, 02.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Erlandsson, Ulf G., 2005.
"Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 314-320, July.
- Yin-wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," Working Papers 052005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 1348, CESifo Group Munich.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002.
"Fear Of Floating,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Robert Hugh Davis)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.