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Évolution du rôle du yuan en Asie orientale : la guerre des monnaies aura-t-elle lieu ?

  • Catherine Figuière

    ()

    (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II : EA4625)

  • Laëtitia Guilhot

    ()

    (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II : EA4625)

Registered author(s):

    Après un retour sur l'évolution de la gestion du taux de change du yuan, l'analyse montrera que si quatre scénarios sont théoriquement envisageables pour l'avenir des taux de change en Asie orientale, le yuan ne pourra y jouer explicitement un rôle clé à court et moyen terme. L'expérience chinoise d'ancrage à un panier de monnaies entre 2005 et 2008 pourrait par contre s'imposer comme référence dans les années à venir, ouvrant la voie à la constitution d'un "bloc monétaire asiatique". La création d'un Fonds monétaire asiatique en mars 2010 va renforcer cette hypothèse. Ainsi "la guerre des monnaies" peut être difficilement envisageable au sein de la zone, néanmoins les tensions récurrentes entre les États-Unis et la Chine sur les questions de la sousévaluation du yuan laissent présager ce phénomène sur une autre aire géographique.

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    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00697581.

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    Date of creation: 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00697581
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    1. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2010. "Asia Confronts the Impossible Trinity," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22814, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Winkler, Adalbert, 2010. "The Financial Crisis: A Wake-Up Call for Strengthening Regional Monitoring of Financial Markets and Regional Coordination of Financial Sector Policies?," ADBI Working Papers 199, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Willem THORBECKE, 2010. "The Appropriate Policy Mix for China," Policy Discussion Papers 10002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. THORBECKE, Willem, 2010. "The Appropriate Policy Mix for China (Japanese)," Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) 10027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. OGAWA Eiji & SHIMIZU Junko, 2007. "Progress toward a Common Currency Basket System in East Asia," Discussion papers 07002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Plummer, Michael, 2010. "Regional Monitoring of Capital Flows and Coordination of Financial Regulation: Stakes and Options for Asia," ADBI Working Papers 201, Asian Development Bank Institute.
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