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Évolution du rôle du yuan en Asie orientale : la guerre des monnaies aura-t-elle lieu ?

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Figuière

    () (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)

  • Laëtitia Guilhot

    () (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)

Abstract

Après un retour sur l'évolution de la gestion du taux de change du yuan, l'analyse montrera que si quatre scénarios sont théoriquement envisageables pour l'avenir des taux de change en Asie orientale, le yuan ne pourra y jouer explicitement un rôle clé à court et moyen terme. L'expérience chinoise d'ancrage à un panier de monnaies entre 2005 et 2008 pourrait par contre s'imposer comme référence dans les années à venir, ouvrant la voie à la constitution d'un "bloc monétaire asiatique". La création d'un Fonds monétaire asiatique en mars 2010 va renforcer cette hypothèse. Ainsi "la guerre des monnaies" peut être difficilement envisageable au sein de la zone, néanmoins les tensions récurrentes entre les États-Unis et la Chine sur les questions de la sousévaluation du yuan laissent présager ce phénomène sur une autre aire géographique.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Figuière & Laëtitia Guilhot, 2011. "Évolution du rôle du yuan en Asie orientale : la guerre des monnaies aura-t-elle lieu ?," Post-Print halshs-00697581, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00697581
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00697581
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2012. "Asia Confronts the Impossible Trinity," Chapters,in: Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Michael G. Plummer, 2012. "Regional Monitoring of Capital Flows and Coordination of Financial Regulation: Stakes and Options for Asia," Chapters,in: Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Adalbert Winkler, 2012. "The Financial Crisis: A Wake-up Call for Strengthening Regional Monitoring of Financial Markets and Regional Coordination of Financial Sector Policies?," Chapters,in: Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. OGAWA Eiji & SHIMIZU Junko, 2007. "Progress toward a Common Currency Basket System in East Asia," Discussion papers 07002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Willem THORBECKE, 2010. "The Appropriate Policy Mix for China," Policy Discussion Papers 10002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. THORBECKE, Willem, 2010. "The Appropriate Policy Mix for China (Japanese)," Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) 10027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Laëtitia Guilhot, 2015. "Le nouveau modèle de croissance de l’économie chinoise, un moyen pour relever le défi de la trappe à revenu intermédiaire ?," Post-Print halshs-01165405, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monnaie; taux de change; politique monétaire; croissance économique; Asie orientale; Chine;

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