IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00697581.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Évolution du rôle du yuan en Asie orientale : la guerre des monnaies aura-t-elle lieu ?

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Figuière

    (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2)

  • Laëtitia Guilhot

    (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2)

Abstract

Après un retour sur l'évolution de la gestion du taux de change du yuan, l'analyse montrera que si quatre scénarios sont théoriquement envisageables pour l'avenir des taux de change en Asie orientale, le yuan ne pourra y jouer explicitement un rôle clé à court et moyen terme. L'expérience chinoise d'ancrage à un panier de monnaies entre 2005 et 2008 pourrait par contre s'imposer comme référence dans les années à venir, ouvrant la voie à la constitution d'un "bloc monétaire asiatique". La création d'un Fonds monétaire asiatique en mars 2010 va renforcer cette hypothèse. Ainsi "la guerre des monnaies" peut être difficilement envisageable au sein de la zone, néanmoins les tensions récurrentes entre les États-Unis et la Chine sur les questions de la sousévaluation du yuan laissent présager ce phénomène sur une autre aire géographique.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Figuière & Laëtitia Guilhot, 2011. "Évolution du rôle du yuan en Asie orientale : la guerre des monnaies aura-t-elle lieu ?," Post-Print halshs-00697581, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00697581
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00697581
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00697581/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adalbert Winkler, 2012. "The Financial Crisis: A Wake-up Call for Strengthening Regional Monitoring of Financial Markets and Regional Coordination of Financial Sector Policies?," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & David G. Mayes & Peter Morgan (ed.), Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Michael G. Plummer, 2012. "Regional Monitoring of Capital Flows and Coordination of Financial Regulation: Stakes and Options for Asia," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & David G. Mayes & Peter Morgan (ed.), Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. OGAWA Eiji & SHIMIZU Junko, 2007. "Progress toward a Common Currency Basket System in East Asia," Discussion papers 07002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Willem THORBECKE, 2010. "The Appropriate Policy Mix for China," Policy Discussion Papers 10002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2012. "Asia Confronts the Impossible Trinity," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. THORBECKE, Willem, 2010. "The Appropriate Policy Mix for China (Japanese)," Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) 10027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Eric Girardin, 2011. "A De Facto Asian-Currency Unit Bloc in East Asia : It Has Been There but We Did Not Look for It," Finance Working Papers 23275, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laëtitia Guilhot, 2015. "Le nouveau modèle de croissance de l’économie chinoise, un moyen pour relever le défi de la trappe à revenu intermédiaire ?," Post-Print halshs-01165405, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Catherine Figuière & Laëtitia Guilhot & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2013. "La question du régime de change en Asie de l'Est : Vers un bloc monétaire régional ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 123(2), pages 265-298.
    2. Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan, 2014. "Regional financial regulation in Asia," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Pradumna B. Rana (ed.), New Global Economic Architecture, chapter 6, pages 112-147, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Taizo Motonishi, 2009. "Are the East Asian Currencies still Misaligned? An analysis based on absolute PPP-Income relationship using panel data," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 381, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Sengupta, Rajeswari & Sen Gupta, Abhijit, 2015. "Is there a Case for Exchange Rate Coordination in South Asia?," MPRA Paper 69131, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Pontines, Victor, 2015. "How useful is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index for surveillance in East Asia?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 269-287.
    7. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis & Asongu, Simplice A. & Cinyabuguma, Matthias & Tchamyou, Vanessa S., 2017. "Financial development and prehistoric geographical isolation: global evidence," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 283-306, December.
    8. Simplice A Asongu & Lieven De Moor, 2017. "Financial Globalisation Dynamic Thresholds for Financial Development: Evidence from Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 29(1), pages 192-212, January.
    9. Peter J. Morgan, 2013. "Monetary Policy Frameworks in Asia : Experience, Lessons, and Issues," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23639, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Petar Vujanovic, 2011. "Understanding the Recent Surge in the Accumulation of International Reserves," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 866, OECD Publishing.
    11. Morgan, Peter J. & Lamberte , Mario, 2012. "Strengthening Financial Infrastructure," ADBI Working Papers 345, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    12. Mirjana Gligorić, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy, Growth, And Foreign Trade In China," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(190), pages 103-139, July – Se.
    13. Takatoshi Ito & Satoshi Koibuchi & Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu, 2010. "Why has the yen failed to become a dominant invoicing currency in Asia? A firm-level analysis of Japanese Exporters' invoicing behavior," NBER Working Papers 16231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Michael Enowbi Batuo & Simplice A. Asongu, 2015. "The impact of liberalisation policies on income inequality in African countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(1), pages 68-100, January.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Subramanian Arvind & Kessler Martin, 2013. "The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 49-94, August.
    17. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & You, Kefei, 2018. "Exchange rate linkages between the ASEAN currencies, the US dollar and the Chinese RMB," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 227-238.
    18. Hong Bum Jang, 2011. "Financial Integration and Cooperation in East Asia: Assessment of Recent Developments and Their Implications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    19. C. Randall Henning, 2012. "Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series WP12-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    20. Ulrich Volz, 2013. "Lessons of the European crisis for regional monetary and financial integration in East Asia," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 355-376, December.
    21. Houssein Guimbard & Maëlan Le Goff, 2014. "Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers 2014-28, CEPII research center.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00697581. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.