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How Useful Is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) Index for Surveillance in East Asia?

  • Pontines, Victor

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

An Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index is constructed using an alternative procedure which minimizes a basket or portfolio of assets expressed in terms of national currencies. Using this estimated ACU Index and an ACU Deviation Indicator, the main finding of this study based on the current trajectory of East Asian currencies relative to this regional ACU average or benchmark, is that there is a formation of two contrasting groups of countries in the region—one a group of strong currencies and the other a group of weak currencies. We suggest several ways in which the region can capitalize on using this ACU index in the immediate term for surveillance purposes, particularly, for purposes of assessing “over- and undervaluation” of the individual currencies from the regional ACU average and for flagging emerging vulnerabilities in individual economies in the region.

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Paper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 413.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 29 Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0413
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  1. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza Y., 2010. "Fear of Appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The Role of the Chinese Renminbi," MPRA Paper 25408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Eric Girardin, 2011. "A De Facto Asian-Currency Unit Bloc in East Asia : It Has Been There but We Did Not Look for It," Governance Working Papers 23275, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  4. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Raul Razo-Garcia, 2011. "How Reliable are De Facto Exchange Rate Regime Classifications?," NBER Working Papers 17318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2007. "The Yen, the US dollar, and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 214-235, March.
  7. Hwee Kwan Chow & Peter Nicholas Kriz & Roberto S. Mariano & Augustine H. H. Tan, 2010. "Monetary Policy Cooperation To Support Asian Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(01), pages 83-101.
  8. Pozo, Susan & Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, 2003. "Statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 591-609, August.
  9. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Too Much of a Good Thing?: The Adequacy of International Reserves in the Aftermath of Crises," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-10, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  10. Pontines, Victor & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2011. "Foreign exchange market intervention and reserve accumulation in emerging Asia: Is there evidence of fear of appreciation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 252-255, June.
  11. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2012. "Exchange Rate Coordination in Asia : Evidence using the Asian Currency Unit," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23321, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  12. Eiji Ogawa & Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," NBER Working Papers 8002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Victor Pontines, 2009. "Optimal common currency basket in East Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1139-1141.
  14. Masahiro Kawai, 2008. "Toward A Regional Exchange Rate Regime In East Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103, 02.
  15. Saravelo, George & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 5027952, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  16. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2008. "Asset prices and monetary policy: booms and fat tails in East Asia," BIS Working Papers 243, Bank for International Settlements.
  17. Mundell, Robert, 2003. "Prospects for an Asian currency area," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, February.
  18. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2008. "Fundamental pitfalls of exchange market pressure-based approaches to identification of currency crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-365.
  19. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Rose, Andrew K, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era: Fixed, Floating, and Flaky," CEPR Discussion Papers 7987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Takagi, Shinji, 1988. "A basket peg policy: Operational issues for developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 271-279, February.
  22. Thorbecke, Willem, 2010. "An empirical analysis of ASEAN's labor-intensive exports," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 505-513, December.
  23. Victor Pontines & Ramkishen Rajan, 2008. "The Asian Currency Unit (ACU): exploring alternative currency weights," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 269-278.
  24. THORBECKE, Willem, 2012. "East Asian Supply Chains and Relative Prices: A survey of the evidence," Policy Discussion Papers 12006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  25. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2006. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Working Papers 12542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Már Gudmundsson, 2008. "Near-Term Exchange Rate Flexibility In East Asia: Precursor To Regional Monetary Union?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 62-82, 02.
  27. Hovanov, Nikolai V. & Kolari, James W. & Sokolov, Mikhail V., 2004. "Computing currency invariant indices with an application to minimum variance currency baskets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1481-1504, June.
  28. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
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