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The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia

Listed author(s):
  • Kawai, Masahiro

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Pontines, Victor

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

With the rise of the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the world's largest trading nation (measured by trade value) and second largest economic power (measured by GDP), its economic influence over the neighboring emerging economies in East Asia has also risen. The PRC introduced some exchange rate flexibility in July 2005, and in the wake of the global financial crisis has been pursuing a policy to internationalize its currency, the renminbi (RMB). Clearly the exchange rate policy of the PRC has significant implications for exchange rate regimes in emerging East Asia. This paper examines the behavior of the RMB exchange rate and the impact of RMB movements on those of other currencies in emerging East Asia during the period 2000–2014. We apply the Frankel–Wei regression model to identify changes in the RMB exchange rate regime over time and a modified version of the model, developed by the authors in their earlier paper, to estimate the RMB weight in an emerging East Asian economy's currency basket. We find that the US dollar continues to be the dominant anchor currency in the region, while the RMB has taken on increasing importance in the currency baskets of many East Asian economies in recent years. The paper also explores how monetary and currency cooperation—led by the PRC and Japan—can promote intra-East Asian exchange rate stability under the pressure of rising financial market openness in the PRC.

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Paper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 484.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 30 May 2014
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0484
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  1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 331-360, August.
  2. Hwee Kwan Chow, 2011. "Towards an Expanded Role for Asian Currencies : Issues and Prospects," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23251, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Pontines, Victor, 2015. "How useful is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index for surveillance in East Asia?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 269-287.
  4. Kawai, Masahiro & Akiyama, Shigeru, 1998. "The Role of Nominal Anchor Currencies in Exchange Rate Arrangements," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 334-387, December.
  5. Balasubramaniam, Vimal & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Who cares about the Chinese Yuan?," Working Papers 11/89, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  6. Hiro Ito & Masahiro Kawai, 2012. "New Measures of the Trilemma Hypothesis : Implications for Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23331, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  7. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "China's Dominance Hypothesis and the Emergence of a Tri‐polar Global Currency System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1343-1370, December.
  8. Kawai, Masahiro & Pontines, Victor, 2014. "Is There Really a Renminbi Bloc in Asia?," ADBI Working Papers 467, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  9. Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), 2012. "Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14414.
  10. Arvind Subramanian, 2011. "Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6062, November.
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