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The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Kawai, Masahiro

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Pontines, Victor

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

With the rise of the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the world's largest trading nation (measured by trade value) and second largest economic power (measured by GDP), its economic influence over the neighboring emerging economies in East Asia has also risen. The PRC introduced some exchange rate flexibility in July 2005, and in the wake of the global financial crisis has been pursuing a policy to internationalize its currency, the renminbi (RMB). Clearly the exchange rate policy of the PRC has significant implications for exchange rate regimes in emerging East Asia. This paper examines the behavior of the RMB exchange rate and the impact of RMB movements on those of other currencies in emerging East Asia during the period 2000–2014. We apply the Frankel–Wei regression model to identify changes in the RMB exchange rate regime over time and a modified version of the model, developed by the authors in their earlier paper, to estimate the RMB weight in an emerging East Asian economy's currency basket. We find that the US dollar continues to be the dominant anchor currency in the region, while the RMB has taken on increasing importance in the currency baskets of many East Asian economies in recent years. The paper also explores how monetary and currency cooperation—led by the PRC and Japan—can promote intra-East Asian exchange rate stability under the pressure of rising financial market openness in the PRC.

Suggested Citation

  • Kawai, Masahiro & Pontines, Victor, 2014. "The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," ADBI Working Papers 484, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0484
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "China's Dominance Hypothesis and the Emergence of a Tri‐polar Global Currency System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1343-1370, December.
    10. Subramanian Arvind & Kessler Martin, 2013. "The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?1)," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 49-94, August.
    11. Corrinne Ho & Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2005. "Trading Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, pages 295-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Masahiro Kawai & Li-Gang Liu, 2015. "Trilemma Challenges for the People's Republic of China," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 32(1), pages 49-89, March.
    2. Mr. Vladimir Klyuev & To-Nhu Dao, 2016. "Evolution of Exchange Rate Behavior in the ASEAN-5 Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/165, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mikko Huotari & Sandra Heep, 2016. "Learning geoeconomics: China’s experimental financial and monetary initiatives," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 153-171, June.
    4. Wing-Choong Lai & Kim-Leng Goh, 2019. "Impact of Chinese Yuan Devaluation on the Dependence Structure: The Archimedean Copula Approach," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & You, Kefei, 2018. "Exchange rate linkages between the ASEAN currencies, the US dollar and the Chinese RMB," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 227-238.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Domenico Lombardi, 2017. "RMBI or RMBR? Is the Renminbi Destined to Become a Global or Regional Currency?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(1), pages 35-59, Winter/Sp.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & You, Kefei, 2018. "Exchange rate linkages between the ASEAN currencies, the US dollar and the Chinese RMB," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 227-238.
    8. Liu, Tao & Wang, Xiaosong & Woo, Wing Thye, 2022. "The rise of Renminbi in Asia: Evidence from Network Analysis and SWIFT dataset," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Chang Sik Kim & Sunghyun Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2018. "RMB Bloc in East Asia: Too Early to Talk About It?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(3), pages 31-48, Fall.
    10. George K. Zestos & Wei Guo & Ryan Patnode, 2018. "Determinants of Real Chinese GDP 1978–2014," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 161-177, June.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_020 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    renminbi internationalization; prc; emerging economies; east asia; frankel-wei model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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