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Identifying the De Facto Exchange Rate Regime for Moldova: A State-Space Approach

  • Vitalie Ciubotaru

    ()

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

It has been noted that there is an inconsistency between the Moldovan monetary authoritiesf declared pursuit of price stability and the de facto exchange rate peg. This paper looks into the exchange rate regime of the Moldovan leu (MDL) aiming to identify the de facto regime, to test whether it differes from the de jure regime stipulated by legislation, whether it can be described by a basket peg (and, if so, to determine the composition of this basket), and whether the regime has been stable over time. The methodology used in our analysis is the celebrated Frankel-Wei regression, to which we apply a Kalman filter algorithm. We show that the MDL generally follows a peg to the US dollar with varying implicit weight and fluctuation bands. Surprisingly, despite the large share of euro-denominated transactions on the Moldovan exchange market, and an even larger share of euro-denominated assets, the euro has never exhibited any statistically signicant weight.

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File URL: http://www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/global/dp/1210.pdf
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Paper provided by Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) in its series Discussion Papers in Economics and Business with number 12-10.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:1210
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/
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  1. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen Rajan, 2005. "Have Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia Become More Flexible Post Crisis? Re-visiting the Evidence," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-03, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  3. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 331-360, 08.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Xie, Daniel, 2010. "Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes," Scholarly Articles 4454158, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Coeure, Benoit & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "On the identification of de facto currency pegs," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 112-127, March.
  6. Imad A. Moosa, 2008. "Forecasting the Chinese Yuan-US Dollar Exchange Rate under the New Chinese Exchange Rate Regime," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, April.
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