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The Chinese Yuan after the Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform

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  • Eiji Ogawa
  • Michiru Sakane

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the actual exchange rate policy conducted by the Chinese government after the Chinese exchange rate system reform on July 21 2005. Also, we investigate long-run effect (Balassa-Samuelson effect) on the Chinese yuan. We found that the Chinese government had a statistically significant but small change in exchange rate policy during our sample period to January 25, 2006. It is not identified that the Chinese monetary authority is adopting the currency basket system because the change is too small in the economic sense. On one hand, higher growth rate of productivity will appreciate the Chinese yuan in terms of the US dollar and the Japanese yen while higher growth rates of productivity in Chinese tradable good sector tend to give the Balassa-Samuleson effect, that is undervaluation bias, to the Chinese yuan.

Suggested Citation

  • Eiji Ogawa & Michiru Sakane, 2006. "The Chinese Yuan after the Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform," Discussion papers 06019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:06019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eiji Ogawa & Lijian Sun, 2001. "How Were Capital Inflows Stimulated under the Dollar Peg System?," NBER Chapters,in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10, pages 151-190 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
    4. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    5. Ito, Takatoshi & Ogawa, Eiji & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 1998. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 256-304, December.
    6. Ronald I. McKinnon, 2002. "After the Crisis, the East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected: An Interpretation of High-Frequency Exchange Rate Pegging," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Monetary And Financial Management In Asia In The 21st Century, chapter 2, pages 21-77 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1994. "Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_94-1.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3, pages 295-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. John Williamson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa60.
    10. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2001. "Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_01-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Lei & Chen, Langnan, 2013. "A reinvestigation of the new RMB exchange rate regime," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 16-25.
    2. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    3. Eiji Ogawa & Kentaro Kawasaki, 2008. "Adopting a Common Currency Basket Arrangement into the ASEAN Plus Three," NBER Chapters,in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17), pages 219-237 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel & Daniel Xie, 2010. "Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 568-572, May.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009. "New Estimation Of China'S Exchange Rate Regime," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 346-360, August.
    6. Liang, J. & Gao, Y., 2012. "Calibration of implied volatility for the exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan from its derivatives," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1278-1285.
    7. Eiji Ogawa, 2011. "Currency Baskets for East Asia," Chapters,in: Regional Integration, Economic Development and Global Governance, chapter 14 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Ulrich Volz (ed.), 2011. "Regional Integration, Economic Development and Global Governance," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14259.
    9. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Jiang Liang, 2011. "The PPP hypothesis in the US/China relationship. Fractional integration, time variation and data frequency," Faculty Working Papers 13/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    10. OGAWA, Eiji & WANG, Zhiqian, 2014. "How Did the Global Financial Crisis Misalign East Asian Currencies?," Working Paper Series G-1-8, Center for Financial Research, Graduate School of Commerce and Management, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Ogawa, Eiji & Shimizu, Junko, 2006. "Stabilization of effective exchange rates under common currency basket systems," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 590-611, December.
    12. Fang, Ying & Huang, Shicheng & Niu, Linlin, 2012. "De facto currency baskets of China and East Asian economies : The rising weights," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    13. Ogawa, Eiji & Iwatsubo, Kentaro, 2009. "External adjustments and coordinated exchange rate policy in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 225-239, May.
    14. Jarko Fidrmuc & Martin Siddiqui, 2015. "Exchange Rate Policy in China after the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Time-varying Exchange Rate Basket," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 608-623, August.
    15. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2017. "Systematic Managed Floating," NBER Working Papers 23663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Eiji Ogawa & Takeshi Kudo, 2007. "Possible depreciation of the US dollar for unsustainable current account deficit in the United States," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(4), pages 24-30, January.
    17. Marco Mele, 2014. "On China’s Exchange Rate Regime: Is Euro outside?," International Economics Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 3(2), pages 49-58, October.
    18. OGAWA Eiji & Zhiqian WANG, 2012. "The AMU Deviation Indicators Based on the Purchasing Power Parity and Adjusted by the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," Discussion papers 12078, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. OGAWA Eiji & SHIMIZU Junko, 2007. "Progress toward a Common Currency Basket System in East Asia," Discussion papers 07002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. repec:wsi:ceprxx:v:01:y:2012:i:02:n:s1793969012500112 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Ogawa, Eiji & Kudo, Takeshi, 2007. "Asymmetric responses of East Asian currencies to the US dollar depreciation for reducing the US current account deficits," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 175-194, February.
    22. OGAWA Eiji & Zhiqian WANG, 2013. "How Did the Global Financial Crisis Misalign East Asian Currencies?," Discussion papers 13096, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    23. Eiji Ogawa & Junko Shimizu, 2006. "Stabilization of Effective Exchange Rates Under Common Currency Basket Systems," NBER Working Papers 12198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Eiji Ogawa & Zhiqian Wang, 2012. "The AMU Deviation Indicators Based on the Purchasing Power Parity and Adjusted by the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-255, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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