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Post-crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia

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  • Shin-ichi Fukuda

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

More than five years after the onset of the Asian crisis, the characteristics of the exchange rate regimes of East Asian economies remain a topic of considerable discussion. The purpose of this paper is to investigate what affected the values of three ASEAN currencies, the Malaysia ringgit, the Singapore dollar, and the Thai baht after the crisis. The particular interest in our analysis is to explore why the East Asian currencies, which temporarily reduced correlations with the U.S. dollar after the crisis, had a tendency to revert back to de facto pegs against the U.S. dollar in the late 1990s. Based on high-frequency day-to-day observations, we examine how and when these three ASEAN currencies changed their correlations with the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen in the post-crisis period. Before September 1st 1998, these currencies increased correlations with the Japanese yen in the post-crisis period. In particular, the increased correlations were larger than theoretical correlations based on the trade weights. The increase in correlations with the Japanese yen was, however, temporary. After Malaysia adopted the fixed exchange rate, both the Singapore dollar and the Thai baht increased correlations with the U.S. dollar drastically and began reverting back to de facto pegs against the U.S. dollar. A part of the change was attributable to asymmetric responses to the yen-dollar exchange rate. The change was, however, explained quite well by the strong linkage among the ASEAN countries. This implies that a regime switch in Malaysia had an enormously large impact on the exchange rates of the other ASEAN countries in the post-crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2002. "Post-crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-181, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2002cf181
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    Cited by:

    1. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay & Sethy, Anmol & Balasubramaniam, Vimal, 2011. "The exchange rate regime in Asia: From crisis to crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 32-43, January.
    2. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2005. "Have Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia become More Flexible Post crisis? Re-VISITING the EVIDENCE," Finance Working Papers 22563, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Kim, Yoonbai & Sun, Wei, 2007. "Characterizing exchange rate policy in East Asia: A reconsideration," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 448-465, June.
    4. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Sanae Ohno, 2006. "Post-crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in ASEAN:A New Empirical Test Based on Intra-daily Data (Forthcoming in "Singapore Economic Review". )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-079, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Sanae Ohno, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia after the Crisis: Implications from Intra-daily Data," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-247, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Masanaga Kumakura, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia: Dispelling the Myth of Soft Dollar Pegs," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 70-95.

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