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Optimal currency baskets and the third currency phenomenon: exchange rate policy in Southeast Asia

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  • Graham Bird

    (Surrey Centre of International Economic Studies, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK)

  • Ramkishen Rajan

    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia)

Abstract

Recent financial crises seem to have led to the broad consensus that developing countries should steer clear of exchange rate regimes that lie anywhere between the two extremes or [corner solutions] of credibly fixed or flexible arrangements. But is this a reasonable position to adopt? Would developing countries be well advised to follow this policy recommendation? Should developing countries opt only for the corner solutions? Did the crisis-hit South-east Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thialand and Philippines), make a mistake in effectively pegging to the US dollar rather than in pegging per se? Did pegging to the US dollar constitute a sub-optimal peg? If it did, what would have been the optimum peg? This paper attempts to provide answers to the preceding questions. The paper also conjectures more broadly about monetary policy in developing countries. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Optimal currency baskets and the third currency phenomenon: exchange rate policy in Southeast Asia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(8), pages 1053-1073.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:14:y:2002:i:8:p:1053-1073
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.938
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Wilson & Henry Ng Shang Ren, 2006. "Managing Exchange Rate Volatility : A Comparative Counterfactual Analysis Of Singapore 1994 To 2003," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22584, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Assessing Asian Exchange Rates Coordination under Regional Currency Basket System," AMSE Working Papers 1345, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised Sep 2013.
    3. Teo, Wing Leong, 2009. "Should East Asia's currencies be pegged to the yen? The role of invoice currency," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 283-308, September.
    4. Pomfret, Richard, 2005. "Sequencing trade and monetary integration: issues and application to Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 105-124, February.
    5. de Truchis, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2013. "Southeast Asian monetary integration: New evidences from fractional cointegration of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 394-412.
    6. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2005. "Have Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia become More Flexible Post crisis? Re-VISITING the EVIDENCE," Finance Working Papers 22563, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    7. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2016. "Dynamic Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate System," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 111-161, March.
    8. Kang-Soek Lee & Philippe Saucier, 2005. "La coopération monétaire régionale est-elle un préalable à l'intégration commerciale de l'Asie ?," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 130(2), pages 95-110.
    9. Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Exchange rate coordination in Asia under regional currency basket systems," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2913-2929.
    10. Peter Wilson & Henry Ng Shang Ren, 2006. "Managing Exchange Rate Volatility: A Comparative Counterfactual Analysis of Singapore 1994 to 2003," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0608, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
    11. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Kaji, Sahoko & Asonuma, Tamon, 2014. "Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia," ADBI Working Papers 502, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    12. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2011. "Dynamic Effect of Change in Exchange Rate System -From the Fixed Exchange Rate Regime to the Basket-peg or Floating Regime," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2011-026, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    13. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility Under Peg; Do Trade Patterns Matter?," IMF Working Papers 12/73, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Kaji, Sahoko & Asonuma, Tamon, 2016. "Exchange rate regime switching in Malaysia and Singapore in response to China’s move to a basket peg: A DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-37.
    15. Elbeck, Matt, 2010. "Advancing the design of a dynamic petro-dollar currency basket," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1938-1945, April.
    16. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Exchange Rate Arrangements for East Asia Post-Crisis: Examining the Case for Open Economy Inflation Targeting," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2003-10, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    17. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2006. "Inflation Targeting Arrangements In Asia : Exploring The Role Of The Exchange Rate," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22564, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    18. Zhang, Zhichao & Shi, Nan & Zhang, Xiaoli, 2011. "China s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    19. Cavoli, Tony, 2009. "Is fear of floating justified?: The East Asia experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16.
    20. Richard Pomfret, 2005. "Sequencing Trade and Monetary Integration," Others 0502004, EconWPA.
    21. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Designing Appropriate Exchange Rate Regimes for East Asia: Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2003-09, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    22. Peter Wilson, 2007. "Exchange Rate Cooperation in East Asia – Why a Basket Approach may be best," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0707, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
    23. Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "Why Are Crisis-Induced Devaluations Contractionary? Exploring Alternative Hypotheses," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 526-550.
    24. Peter Wilson, 2007. "Exchange Rate Cooperation in East Asia – Why a Basket Approach may be best," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22586, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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