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Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: filling in the 'hollow middle'?

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  • Leonardo Hernandez
  • Peter Montiel

Abstract

Following the 1997?98 financial turmoil, crisis countries in Asia moved toward either floating or fixed exchange rate systems, superficially consistent with the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes and the ?hollow middle? hypothesis. But some observers have claimed that, despite the changes in their de jure exchange rate regimes, the crisis countries? policies have de facto been very similar in the post- and pre-crisis periods. This paper analyzes the evidence and concludes that, except for Malaysia, which adopted a hard peg and imposed capital controls, the other crisis countries are floating more than before, though less than ?real? floaters do. But the intermediate exchange rate policies pursued by most of the crisis countries during the post-crisis can be justified on second-best arguments.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Hernandez & Peter Montiel, 2002. "Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: filling in the 'hollow middle'?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2002:i:sep:x:4
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    4. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Colm Kearney & Cal Muckley, 2007. "Is North and Southeast Asia becoming a yen block?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 337-351.
    4. Vincent Bouvatier, 2004. "Crise de change et politique monétaire optimale dans un modèle de troisième génération : le rôle de la prime de risque," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla04089, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    5. Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 59(02), pages 171-190, June.
    6. Hanen Gharbi,, 2005. "La gestion des taux de change dans les pays émergents: la leçon des expériences récentes," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-06, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2005. "Have Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia become More Flexible Post crisis? Re-VISITING the EVIDENCE," Finance Working Papers 22563, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    8. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    9. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2002. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate and China’s Stabilizing Role," Working Papers 02010, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    10. Clara Garcia, 2004. "Capital Inflows, Policy Responses, and Their Ill Consequences: Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia in the Decade Before the Crises," Working Papers wp81, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    11. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2006. "Revisiting the interest rate-exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 208-224, February.
    12. Yin-Wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2004. "An Output Perspective on a Northeast Asia Currency Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1250, CESifo.
    13. Vincent Bouvatier, 2007. "Are International Interest Rate Differentials Driven by the Risk Premium? The Case of Asian Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(6), pages 1-14.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:6:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Siregar, Reza Y., 2002. "Interest Rate Policy And Its Implication On The Banking Restructuring Programs In Indonesia During The 1997-Financial Crisis: An Empirical Investigation," EIJS Working Paper Series 154, Stockholm School of Economics, The European Institute of Japanese Studies.
    16. Hossain, Monzur & Ahmed, Mansur, 2009. "Exchange Rate Policy under Floating Regime in Bangladesh: An Assessment and Strategic Policy Options," MPRA Paper 20487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2009. "Intervention index and exchange rate regimes: the cases of selected East-Asian economies," MPRA Paper 17138, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Madhavi Bokil, 2005. "Fear of Floating: An optimal discretionary monetary policy analysis," International Finance 0510002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kearney, Colm & Muckley, Cal, 2007. "Reassessing the evidence of an emerging yen block in North and Southeast Asia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 255-271.
    20. Islam, Roumeen & Nallari, Raj, 2010. "Of floods and droughts : the economic and financial crisis of 2008," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5237, The World Bank.

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