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Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Using VARs and Variance Decomposition

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  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah

    (UPM)

  • Evan Lau

    (UNIMAS)

  • Ahmed M. Khalid

    (Bond University)

Abstract

This paper examines the twin deficits hypothesis in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand (ASEAN-4 countries). The major findings of this paper are: (1) Long run relationships are detected between budget and current account deficits. (2) We found that the Keynesian reasoning fits well for Thailand since a unidirectional relationship exists which runs from budget deficit to current account deficit. For Indonesia the reverse causation (current account targeting) is detected while the empirical results indicate that a bidirectional pattern of causality exists for Malaysia and the Philippines. (3) We also found support for an indirect causal relationship that runs from budget deficit to higher interest rates, and higher interest rates lead to the appreciation of the exchange rate and this leads to the widening of current account deficit. (4) The results of the variance decompositions and impulse response functions suggest that the consequences of large budget and current account deficits become noticeable only over the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Ahmed M. Khalid, 2005. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Using VARs and Variance Decomposition," International Finance 0504001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0504001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michaelis Nikiforos & Laura Carvalho & Christian Schoder, 2014. ""Twin deficits" in Greece in search of causality," IMK Working Paper 143-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2009. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis: Evidence from East Asian countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2517-2524.
    3. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
    4. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:2:p:328-349 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Constantine, Collin, 2014. "Rethinking the Twin Deficits," MPRA Paper 58798, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Michalis Nikiforos & Laura Carvalho & Christian Schoder, 2013. "Foreign and Public Deficits in Greece: In Search of Causality," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_771, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: An Empirical Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2783-2794.
    8. E Lau & S Abu Mansor & C-H Puah, 2010. "Revival of the Twin Deficits in Asian Crisis-affected Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(1), pages 29-54, March.
    9. Burcu KIRAN, 2011. "On The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Evidence From Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).
    10. Sobrino, César R, 2013. "The twin deficits hypothesis and reverse causality: A short-run analysis of Peru," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 18(34), pages 9-15.
    11. U.J. BANDAY & Ranjan ANEJA, 2016. "How budget deficit and current account deficit are interrelated in Indian economy," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 237-246, Spring.
    12. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    13. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: Are there Reasons for Concern? An Empirical Study," Monash Economics Working Papers 11-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. repec:asi:aeafrj:2017:p:959-971 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Veronika Å uliková & Marianna SiniÄ Ã¡ková & Denis Horváth, 2014. "Twin Deficits in Small Open Baltic Economies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 227-239, March.
    16. Chor Foon Tang & Soo Y. Chua, 2012. "The savings-growth nexus for the Malaysian economy: a view through rolling sub-samples," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(32), pages 4173-4185, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Twin deficits; Cointegration; Variance Decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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