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“Twin deficits” in Greece: in search of causality

Author

Listed:
  • Michalis Nikiforos

  • Laura Carvalho, Christian Schoder

Abstract

The paper discusses the trajectories of the Greek public deficit and sovereign debt between 1980 and 2010 and its connection to the political and economic environment of the same period. We pay special attention to the causality between the public and the external deficit in the period after 1995, the post-Maastricht treaty period. We argue that, due to the European monetary unification process and the adoption of the common currency, causality ran from the external deficit to the public deficit. This hypothesis is tested econometrically using both Granger Causality and Cointegration analyses. We find empirical support for this hypothesis

Suggested Citation

  • Michalis Nikiforos & Laura Carvalho, Christian Schoder, 2015. "“Twin deficits” in Greece: in search of causality," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_09, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2015wpecon9
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    Cited by:

    1. Emboava Vaz, João, 2024. "Impacts of US interest rates on growth, income distribution, and macroeconomic policy space in developing countries: A SFC supermultiplier model," IPE Working Papers 228/2024, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Botta, Alberto & Porcile, Gabriel & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano Toshiro, 2023. "Financial integration, productive development and fiscal policy space in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 175-188.
    3. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.
    4. António Afonso & José Alves & José Carlos Coelho & Jamel Saadaoui, 2025. "Fiscal and External Sustainability: a Two-Step Time-varying Granger Causality Assessment," Working Papers REM 2025/0369, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2019. "An Empirical Investigation of Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(3), pages 579-601, September.
    6. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    7. Gennaro Zezza & Francesco Zezza, 2019. "On the Design of Empirical Stock-Flow-Consistent Models," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_919, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Liagouras, George, 2018. "On the Edge of the South European Model: Familism, Business and State in Greece," OSF Preprints 8eqmb, Center for Open Science.
    9. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "Current Account Targeting Hypothesis versus Twin Deficit Hypothesis: the EMU experience of Portugal," Working Papers REM 2021/0182, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2022. "The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    11. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fiscal stance, foreign capital inflows and the behavior of current account in the Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 523-549, February.
    12. Nikolina Kosteletou & Panagiotis Palaios & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2023. "New Evidence on the Asymmetric Linkages Between Fiscal and Current Account Balances," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(4), pages 4145-4169, December.
    13. Demdoumi, Meriem, 2016. "La gestion structurelle des déficits jumeaux au Maroc et la recherche d’une stratégie d’équilibre [Structural management of twin deficits in Morocco and Finding an equilibrium strategy]," MPRA Paper 71533, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    14. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "Fiscal and current account imbalances: the cases of Germany and Portugal," Working Papers REM 2021/0208, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. repec:osf:osfxxx:8eqmb_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. José Carlos Coelho, 2020. "The relationship between budget deficit and external deficit: the case of Portugal," Working Papers REM 2020/0116, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    17. Michalis Nikiforos & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Gennaro Zezza, 2015. "The Greek Public Debt Problem," Economics Policy Note Archive 15-2, Levy Economics Institute.
    18. Sergio Cesaratto & Gennaro Zezza, 2018. "Farsi male da soli: Disciplina esterna, domanda aggregata e il declino economico italiano," Working Papers 2018-05, Universita' di Cassino, Dipartimento di Economia e Giurisprudenza.
    19. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "60%, -4% And 6%, a Tale of Thresholds for EU Fiscal and Current Account Developments," EconPol Working Paper 69, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    20. Michalis Nikiforos & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Gennaro Zezza, 2015. "The Greek public debt problem [The Greek public debt problem]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(spe), pages 777-802, December.
    21. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    22. Ibrar Hussain & Umar Hayat & Md Shabbir Alam & Uzma Khan, 2024. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Twin-Deficit Hypothesis: the Case of a Developing Country," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(1), pages 25-52, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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