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"Twin deficits" in Greece in search of causality

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  • Michaelis Nikiforos
  • Laura Carvalho
  • Christian Schoder

Abstract

The paper discusses the trajectories of the Greek public deficit andsovereign debt between 1980 and 2010 and its connection to thepolitical and economic environment of the same period. We payspecial attention to the causality between the public and the externaldeficit in the period after 1995, the post-Maastricht treaty period.We argue that, due to the European monetary unification processand the adoption of the common currency, causality ran fromthe external deficit to the public deficit. This hypothesis is testedeconometrically using both Granger Causality and Cointegrationanalyses. We find empirical support for this hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaelis Nikiforos & Laura Carvalho & Christian Schoder, 2014. ""Twin deficits" in Greece in search of causality," IMK Working Paper 143-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:143-2014
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    4. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2019. "An Empirical Investigation of Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(3), pages 579-601, September.
    5. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    6. Sergio Cesaratto & Gennaro Zezza, 2018. "Farsi male da soli: Disciplina esterna, domanda aggregata e il declino economico italiano," Working Papers 2018-05, Universita' di Cassino, Dipartimento di Economia e Giurisprudenza.
    7. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "60%, -4% And 6%, a Tale of Thresholds for EU Fiscal and Current Account Developments," EconPol Working Paper 69, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Gennaro Zezza & Francesco Zezza, 2019. "On the Design of Empirical Stock-Flow-Consistent Models," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_919, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Liagouras, George, 2018. "On the Edge of the South European Model: Familism, Business and State in Greece," OSF Preprints 8eqmb, Center for Open Science.
    10. Antonio Afonso & Jose Carlos Coelho, 2021. "Fiscal and current account imbalances: the cases of Germany and Portugal," Working Papers 2021.12, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    11. Michalis Nikiforos & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Gennaro Zezza, 2015. "The Greek public debt problem [The Greek public debt problem]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(spe), pages 777-802, December.
    12. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2022. "The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    13. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "Current Account Targeting Hypothesis versus Twin Deficit Hypothesis: the EMU experience of Portugal," Working Papers REM 2021/0182, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fiscal stance, foreign capital inflows and the behavior of current account in the Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 523-549, February.
    15. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    16. Demdoumi, Meriem, 2016. "La gestion structurelle des déficits jumeaux au Maroc et la recherche d’une stratégie d’équilibre [Structural management of twin deficits in Morocco and Finding an equilibrium strategy]," MPRA Paper 71533, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greece; crisis; public debt; twin deficits; imbalances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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