Rebalancing the Euro area: The costs of internal devaluation
This paper investigates the economic costs of Euro area rebalancing. Based on an old Keynesian model we estimate a current account equation, a wage-Phillips curve and an Okun’s Law equation. All estimations are carried out for a panel of eleven Euro area members (excluding Luxembourg). From the estimation results we calculate the output costs of reducing current account deficits. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS) had, on average, current account deficits of 8.4% of GDP in 2007. To eliminate these current account deficits, it would necessitate a reduction of GPD by some 47%. These are staggering amounts and, indeed we think that such a reduction of GDP should not be imposed in the GIIPS group. Moreover, we doubt whether it would be politically feasible. In principle there are two ways that trade imbalances could be resolved: deflationary adjustment in the deficit countries or inflationary adjustment in the surplus countries. Presently, the burden of adjustment is exclusively on the deficit countries. Our results indicate that the economic costs of this adjustment to those countries are equivalent to the output loss of the Great Depression. An adjustment of the surplus countries would increase growth and it would come with higher inflation, but it would allow rebalancing without a Great Depression in parts of Europe.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD Publishing.
- Engelbert Stockhammer, 2011.
"Wage norms, capital accumulation, and unemployment: a post-Keynesian view,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy,
Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 295-311.
- Engelbert Stockhammer, 2011. "Wage Norms, Capital Accumulation and Unemployment: A Post Keynesian View," Working Papers wp253, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
- Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Current account imbalances in the euro area: Catching up or competitiveness?," Discussion Papers 297, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
- Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Catching up or Competitiveness?," Ruhr Economic Papers 241, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Current account imbalances in the euro area: Catching up or competitiveness?," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48711, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2011. "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Catching up or Competitiveness?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1106, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Sebastian Barnes & Jeremy Lawson & Artur Radziwill, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: A Comparative Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 826, OECD Publishing.
- Peter Kriesler & Marc Lavoie, 2007. "The New Consensus on Monetary Policy and its Post-Keynesian Critique," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 387-404.
- Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 463-473, December.
- Tillmann, Peter, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Fabio Rumler, 2007. "Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 427-451, September.
- Fabio Rumler, 2005. "Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 102, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Rumler, Fabio, 2005. "Estimates of the open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve for euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0496, European Central Bank.
- Arestis, Philip & McCauley, Kevin & Sawyer, Malcolm, 2001. "An Alternative Stability Pact for the European Union," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 113-130, January.
- Philip Arestis & Kevin McCauley & Malcolm Sawyer, 2000. "An Alternative Stability Pact for the European Union," Macroeconomics 0004043, EconWPA.
- Philip Arestis & Kevin McCauley & Malcolm Sawyer, 2000. "An Alternative Stability Pact for the European Union," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_296, Levy Economics Institute.
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "European Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 0020, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & López-Salido, J David, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hein, Eckhard & Truger, Achim, 2005. "European Monetary Union: nominal convergence, real divergence and slow growth?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 7-33, March.
- Ozlem Onaran, 2011. "From wage suppression to sovereign debt crisis in Western Europe: who pays for the costs of the crisis?," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2/3), pages 51-69.
- JÃ¶rg Decressin & Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Current Accounts in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/127, International Monetary Fund.
- Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-164, August.
- Scheufele, Rolf, 2008. "Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2008, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Fabiani, Silvia & Morgan, Julian, 2003. "Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 0213, European Central Bank.
- Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "The Financial Crisis and the Future of the Eurozone," Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 21, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
- Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The Phillips Curve, the IS Curve and Monetary Transmission: Evidence for the US and the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 51(4), pages 757-775.
- Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel Martins, 2005. "Testing the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 665-691, October.
- Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
- Edward S. Knotek & II, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-103.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
- Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2004. "Supply, Factor Shares and Inflation Persistence: Re-examining Euro-area New-Keynesian Phillips Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 637-670, 09.
- Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2004. "On the Main Ingredients of the European Economic and Monetary Union," International Journal of Political Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 34(2), pages 5-18, July.
- Schmitz, Birgit & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2009. "Current Account Imbalances and Financial Integration in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7262, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)