IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Lucas paradox and allocation puzzle: Is the euro area different?

  • Herrmann, Sabine
  • Kleinert, Jörn
Registered author(s):

    This paper examines the Lucas Paradox and the Allocation Puzzle of international capital flows referring to a panel data set of EMU countries and major industrialized and emerging economies. Overall, the results do not provide evidence in favour of the Lucas Paradox and the Allocation Puzzle. Rather, in line with neoclassical expectations, net capital flows are allocated according to income and growth differentials. The 'downhill' flow of capital from rich to poor economies was particularly pronounced in intra-euro area capital flows and after the introduction of the common currency. If we control for the fact that the assumptions of the neoclassical model are not perfectly given in emerging markets, the Lucas Paradox and the Allocation Puzzle can be dismissed for these countries too. However, in periods of financial stress, the neoclassical behaviour of financial flows is to some extent dampened.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: https://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/93084/1/779712854.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 06/2014.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:062014
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt

    Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55
    Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
    Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," International Trade 0012003, EconWPA.
    2. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Caselli, Francesco & Feyrer, James, 2005. "The Marginal Product of Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 5203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mihir A. Desai & Dhammika Dharmapala, 2008. "Taxes, Institutions and Foreign Diversification Opportunities," Working Papers 0828, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    5. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
    6. Bergin, Paul R., 2006. "How well can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics explain the exchange rate and current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 675-701, August.
    7. Roger H. Gordon & A. Lans Bovenberg, 1994. "Why is Capital so Immobile Internationally?: Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 4796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lothian, James R., 2006. "Institutions, capital flows and financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 358-369, April.
    9. Menzie David Chinn & Eswar S Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries; An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 00/46, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Papaioannou, Elias, 2009. "What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 269-281, March.
    11. René M. Stulz, 2005. "The Limits of Financial Globalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1595-1638, 08.
    12. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, December.
    13. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Taylor, Ashley D., 2009. "Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration," IZA Discussion Papers 4133, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    15. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2005. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 11901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hiro Ito & Menzie Chinn, 2009. "East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18, pages 117-150 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Lane, Philip R. & Pels, Barbara, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 8958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Gertler, Mark & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "North-South lending and endogenous domestic capital market inefficiencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 245-266, October.
    19. Reinhardt, Dennis & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "International capital flows and development: financial openness matters," Bank of England working papers 472, Bank of England.
    20. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2012. "Trend growth expectations and US house prices before and after the crisis," Discussion Papers 12/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    21. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sorensen & Belgi Turan, 2007. "Where does Capital Flow? A Comparison of U.S. States and EU Countries 1950-2000," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 295, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    22. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Reshef, Ariell & Sørensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 2006. "Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account - Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 362, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    24. Paolo Mauro & Andre Faria, 2004. "Institutions and the External Capital Structure of Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/236, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    26. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2002. "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1231-1294.
    27. Bovenberg, A.L. & Gordon, R.H., 1996. "Why is capital so immobile internationally? Possible explanation and implications for capital income taxation," Other publications TiSEM 6a131c21-fd9a-4d83-8d9a-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    28. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    29. Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(2), pages 155-192, July.
    30. Obstfeld,Maurice & Taylor,Alan M., 2005. "Global Capital Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671798, November.
    31. Azémar, Céline & Desbordes, Rodolphe, 2013. "Has the Lucas Paradox been fully explained?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 183-187.
    32. Mehmet Fatih Ekinci & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Bent E. Sørensen, 2009. "Financial Integration within EU Countries: The Role of Institutions, Confidence and Trust," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 325-391 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    34. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2009. "The Janus-headed salvation: sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-09," Working Paper Series 1127, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:062014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.