IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, and Global Imbalances

  • Alfaro, Laura
  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
  • Volosovych, Vadym

The paper presents new stylized facts on the direction of capital flows. We find (i) international capital flows net of government debt and/or official aid are positively correlated with growth; (ii) sovereign debt flows are negatively correlated with growth only if debt is financed by another sovereign; (iii) public savings are robustly positively correlated with growth as opposed to private savings. Sovereign to sovereign transactions can fully account for upstream capital flows and global imbalances. These empirical facts contradict the conventional wisdom and constitute a challenge for existing theories.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=8648
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8648.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8648
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.

Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," CEMA Working Papers 595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates," 2006 Meeting Papers 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 17351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Laura Alfaro & Vadym Volosovych, 2003. "Why doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 2003-01, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
  5. Ana Fostel & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2007. "Latin America's Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?," NBER Working Papers 13194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Korinek, Anton & Servén, Luis, 2016. "Undervaluation through foreign reserve accumulation: Static losses, dynamic gains," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 104-136.
  7. Wright, Mark L. J., 2004. "Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth. By Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004. Pp. xviii, 354. $65," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(04), pages 1151-1153, December.
  8. Ju, Jiandong & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "Domestic Institutions and the Bypass Effect of Financial Globalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 6343, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2004. "Serial Default and the “Paradox†of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows," Scholarly Articles 11129182, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Jaewoo, 2007. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism-Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5r95t1xf, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  11. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
  13. Carroll, Christopher D. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2009. "A tractable model of precautionary reserves, net foreign assets, or sovereign wealth funds," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  14. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
  15. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Determinants of current account deficits in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2398, The World Bank.
  16. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries," NBER Working Papers 10332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
  19. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
  20. Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Research Papers 1951, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  21. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2007. "Optimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 13216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Reuven Glick & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1993. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," International Finance Discussion Papers 443, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  23. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Cross-Border Returns Differentials," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1495-1530.
  24. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate, Mercantilism and the Learning by Doing Externality," NBER Working Papers 13853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
  26. Henry, Peter B. & Arslanalp, Serkan, 2003. "Is Debt Relief Efficient?," Research Papers 1837, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  27. Obstfeld,Maurice & Taylor,Alan M., 2005. "Global Capital Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671798, Junio.
  28. Ilyana Kuziemko & Eric Werker, 2006. "How Much Is a Seat on the Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 905-930, October.
  29. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2011. "Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(2), pages 651-697.
  30. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  31. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
  32. Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Debt Relief," Research Papers 1931, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  33. Francisco J. Buera & Yongseok Shin, 2009. "Productivity Growth and Capital Flows: The Dynamics of Reforms," NBER Working Papers 15268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 10296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Alberto Alesina & David Dollar, 1998. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," NBER Working Papers 6612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  38. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D., 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, precautionary saving, and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 121-139, September.
  39. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1996. "Inflows of capital to developing countries in the 1990s," MPRA Paper 13707, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  41. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2013. "Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-43.
  42. Loayza, N. & Schmidt, K. & Serven, L., 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Papers 47, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  43. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  44. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Rodrigo Valdés P. & Kevin Cowan L. & Sebastián Edwards F., 2007. "Current Account and External Financing," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 5-18, December.
  46. Tornell, Aaron & Lane, Philip R., 1998. "Are windfalls a curse?: A non-representative agent model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 83-112, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8648. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.