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Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence

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  • Carmen M. Reinhart
  • Vincent R. Reinhart

Abstract

Over the past decade, policymakers in many emerging market economies have opted to limit fluctuations of the value of their domestic currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. A simple interest-parity relationship is used to identify the potential sources of upward pressure on the value of a foreign exchange rate and to explain the policy options to damp them. The paper then documents the extent to which the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has been sterilized and provides a comprehensive list of major policy initiatives related to stemming forces that would otherwise appreciate the exchange rate in over one hundred countries. This examination of policy efforts shows that a wide variety of tools are used in the attempt to stem the tide of capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13842
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    3. Bartolini, Leonardo & Drazen, Allan, 1997. "Capital-Account Liberalization as a Signal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 138-154, March.
    4. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 285-312, April.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Raymond Reinhart, 2002. "What Hurts Emerging Markets Most? G3 Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility?," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 133-170 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Reinhart, Vincent R, 2000. "How the Machinery of International Finance Runs with Sand in Its Wheels," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 74-85, February.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Okongwu, Chudozie, 1996. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, January.
    8. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 02/27, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen M & Reinhart, Vincent R, 1999. "On the Use of Reserve Requirements in Dealing with Capital Flow Problems," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 27-54, January.
    10. Robert Brandon Kahn & Adam Bennett & María Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan M Schadler, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective Are Capital Controls?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 65-84, Fall.
    12. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    2. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2010. "International Reserves and Underdeveloped Capital Markets," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 193-221 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Salas, Jorge, 2011. "Estimación bayesiana de unmodelo de pequeña economía abierta con dolarización parcial," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 41-62.
    4. Carmen Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 9-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "Central Banks’ Dilemma: Reserve Accumulation, Inflation and Financial Instability," Working Papers 84, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    6. Prakash Kumar Shrestha, Ph.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of International Reserves: Empirical Evidence from South Asia," NRB Working Paper 32/2016, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    7. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    8. Gustavo Adler & Noemie Lisack & Rui Mano, 2015. "Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention; A Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 15/130, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Algozhina, Aliya, 2016. "Monetary Policy Rule, Exchange Rate Regime, and Fiscal Policy Cyclicality in a Developing Oil Economy," Dynare Working Papers 49, CEPREMAP.
    10. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2009. "Fiscal stimulus for debt intolerant countries?," MPRA Paper 16937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Adriana Arreaza & Luis Miguel Castilla & Cristina Fernández, 2009. "The Coming of Age of Sovereign Wealth Funds," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 1(1), pages 25-41, January.
    12. Prakash Shrestha, 2017. "Macroeconomic Impact of International Reserves: Empirical Evidence from South Asia," Working Papers id:12166, eSocialSciences.
    13. Carlos A. Carrasco & Felipe Serrano, 2014. "Global and European Imbalances:A critical review," Working papers wpaper42, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    14. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    15. repec:ilo:ilowps:455446 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Phornchanok Cumperayot & Roy Kouwenberg, 2016. "Currency Wars: Who Gains from the Battle?," PIER Discussion Papers 18., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Feb 2016.
    17. Temesvary, Judit, 2015. "Foreign activities of U.S. banks since 1997: The roles of regulations and market conditions in crises and normal times," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 202-222.
    18. Fei Han, 2014. "Measuring External Risks for Peru; Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy," IMF Working Papers 14/161, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Gerald Epstein & James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana & Grace Chang, 2011. "Employment, Poverty and Economic Development in Madagascar," Published Studies ndikumana_ilo2010, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Peru; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 14/22, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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