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Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence

  • Frankel, Jeffrey A
  • Okongwu, Chudozie

This paper examines interest rates in nine Latin American and East Asian countries during the period 1987-94. The goal is to discover why interest rates remained high, failing to converge to US levels, despite capital market liberalization and a resurgence of portfolio capital inflows during the second half of this sample period. Related questions are whether portfolio capital flows are strong enough to equalize expected returns between these "emerging markets" and the US, and whether there is any scope left for the authorities to sterilize inflows. The conclusion of the study is that the largest single component of the gap in interest rates is expectations of depreciation of the local currencies against the dollar. The key to the analysis is the use of survey data on exchange rate forecasts by market participants. Indicative of integrated financial markets, we also find a big effect of US interest rates on local interest rates, and a highly significant degree of capital flow offset to monetary policy. Copyright @ 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 1 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-23

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:1:y:1996:i:1:p:1-23
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  1. Sebastian Edwards, 1985. "The Pricing of Bonds and Bank Loans in International Markets: An Empirical Analysis of Developing Countries' Foreign Borrowing," NBER Working Papers 1689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  4. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1993. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233182, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-44, June.
  6. Kamas, Linda, 1986. "The Balance of Payments Offset to Monetary Policy: Monetarist, Portfolio Balance, and Keynesian Estimates for Mexico and Venezuela," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 467-81, November.
  7. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1994. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 759-70, November.
  8. Vittorio Grilli & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 1995. "Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 95/31, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1991. "The Perils of Sterilization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 921-926, December.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "Sterilization of Money Inflows; Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?," IMF Working Papers 94/159, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, 07.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "Af1uencia de capital y apreciacion del tipo de cambio real en America Latina: E1 papel de los factores externos
    [Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of Ex
    ," MPRA Paper 13681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  15. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J., 1995. "The surge in capital inflows to developing countries : prospects and policy response," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1473, The World Bank.
  16. Goldstein, Morris, 1995. "Coping with too much of a good thing : policy responses for large capital inflows in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1507, The World Bank.
  17. Michael P. Dooley & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1994. "Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Is the Debt Crisis History?," NBER Working Papers 4792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s," MPRA Paper 8196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Kamas, Linda, 1985. "External disturbances and the independence of monetary policy under the crawling peg in Colombia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 313-327, November.
  20. Kouri, Pentti J K & Porter, Michael G, 1974. "International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 443-67, May/June.
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