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Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries

  • Dooley, Michael
  • Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo
  • Kletzer, Kenneth

The outlook for economic development for an important group of middle-income countries has once again been buoyed by substantial private capital inflows in the 1990s. As in the 1970s, this development has been met with cautious optimism. This empirical study finds that although debt reduction and policy reforms in debtor countries have been important determinants of renewed access to international capital markets, changes in international interest rates have been the dominant factor. We calculate the effects of changes in international interest rates for a "typical" debtor country. We conclude that increases in interest rates associated with a business cycle upturn in industrial countries could depress the secondary market prices of existing debt to levels inconsistent with continued capital inflows. Copyright 1996 by Oxford University Press.

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Article provided by World Bank Group in its journal World Bank Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 27-50

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Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:10:y:1996:i:1:p:27-50
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  1. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
  2. Edmar L. Bacha, 1991. "The Brady plan and beyond: New debt management options for Latin America," Textos para discussão 257, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  3. Michael P. Dooley & Richard D. Haas & Steven A. Symansky, 1992. "A Noteon Burden Sharing Among Creditors," IMF Working Papers 92/21, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Cohen, Daniel, 1992. "The Debt Crisis: A Post Mortem," CEPR Discussion Papers 692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Cohen, Daniel & Portes, Richard, 1990. "The Price of LDC Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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