Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries
The outlook for economic development for an important group of middle-income countries has once again been buoyed by substantial private capital inflows in the 1990s. As in the 1970s, this development has been met with cautious optimism. This empirical study finds that although debt reduction and policy reforms in debtor countries have been important determinants of renewed access to international capital markets, changes in international interest rates have been the dominant factor. We calculate the effects of changes in international interest rates for a "typical" debtor country. We conclude that increases in interest rates associated with a business cycle upturn in industrial countries could depress the secondary market prices of existing debt to levels inconsistent with continued capital inflows. Copyright 1996 by Oxford University Press.
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Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993.
"Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
- Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Edmar L. Bacha, 1991. "The Brady plan and beyond: New debt management options for Latin America," Textos para discussão 257, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cohen, Daniel & Portes, Richard, 1990. "The Price of LDC Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael Dooley & Richard D. Haas & Steven Symansky, 1993. "A Note on Burden Sharing among Creditors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 226-232, March.
- Michael P. Dooley & Richard D Haas & Steven A. Symansky, 1992. "A Noteon Burden Sharing Among Creditors," IMF Working Papers 92/21, International Monetary Fund.
- Daniel Cohen, 1992. "The Debt Crisis: A Postmortem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 65-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cohen, Daniel, 1992. "The Debt Crisis: A Post Mortem," CEPR Discussion Papers 692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
- Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & DEC, 1994. "The new wave of private capital inflows : push or pull?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1312, The World Bank.
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