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Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Is the Debt Crisis History?

  • Michael P. Dooley
  • Eduardo Fernandez-Arias
  • Kenneth M. Kletzer

This empirical study finds that while debt reduction and policy reforms in debtor countries have been important determinants of renewed access to international capital markets, changes in international interest rates have been the dominant factor. We calculate the effects of changes in international interest rates for a 'typical' debtor country. We conclude that increases in interest rates associated with business cycle upturn in industrial countries could depress the secondary market prices of existing debt to levels inconsistent with continued capital inflows.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4792.

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Date of creation: Jul 1994
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1996. "Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 27-50, January.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4792
Note: IFM
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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  2. Jeremy Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff & Afonso S. Bevilaqua, 1992. "Official Creditor Seniority and Burden-Sharing in the Former Soviet Bloc," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 195-234.
  3. Edmar L. Bacha, 1991. "The Brady plan and beyond: New debt management options for Latin America," Textos para discussão 257, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  4. Diwan, Ishac & Kletzer, Ken, 1990. "Voluntary choices in concerted deals : mechanics and attributes of the menu approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 527, The World Bank.
  5. Daniel Cohen, 1992. "The Debt Crisis: A Postmortem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 65-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Cohen, Daniel & Portes, Richard, 1990. "The Price of LDC Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Cohen Daniel, 1992. "Debt crisis (the) : a post mortem," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9204, CEPREMAP.
  8. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1992. "Burden-sharing among official and private creditors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 943, The World Bank.
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