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The role of global risk aversion in explaining Latin American sovereign spreads

Author

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  • Alicia García-Herrero

    (Banco de España)

  • Álvaro Ortiz

    (Repsol-YPF)

Abstract

This paper assesses empirically whether global risk aversion (GRA) and some if its determinants (US economic growth and the US long term interest rates) explain developments in Latin American sovereign spreads. We find that GRA is significant and positively related to Latin American sovereign spreads and that its impact varies across countries and over time. Chile, with a lower sovereign risk, is relatively more affected. The opposite is true for Argentina, Ecuador and Venezuela. In addition, the influence of GRA on spreads has risen since the Enron scandal. Finally, both an increase in US economic growth and US long term interest rates are found to reduce spreads while the opposite is true for US short term interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Alicia García-Herrero & Álvaro Ortiz, 2005. "The role of global risk aversion in explaining Latin American sovereign spreads," Working Papers 0505, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0505
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    Cited by:

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    2. Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Factores mundiales y diferenciales de intereses en mercados emergentes," Research Department Publications 4446, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Martín González‐Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
    4. Ciarlone, Alessio & Piselli, Paolo & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2009. "Emerging markets' spreads and global financial conditions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 222-239, April.
    5. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," MPRA Paper 47390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Akıncı, Özge, 2013. "Global financial conditions, country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 358-371.
    7. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro-Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 575-584, 04-05.
    8. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    9. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
    10. Kevin Cowan L. & José De Gregorio R. & Alejandro Micco A. & Christopher Neilson M., 2007. "Financial Diversification and Sudden Stops," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 45-65, December.
    11. Andrea Fracasso, 2006. "The role of foreign and domestic factors in the evolution of the Brazilian EMBI spread and debt dynamics," IHEID Working Papers 22-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
    12. Ercio Muñoz S., 2013. "Precio de Materias Primas y Spread Soberano en Economías Emergentes ¿Importa la Concentración de las Exportaciones?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 100-121, April.
    13. Alessio Ciarlone & Paolo Piselli & Giorgio Trebeschi, 2008. "Emerging market spreads in the recent financial turmoil," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 35, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Manuel Ramos-Francia & José G Rangel, 2012. "Revisiting the effects of country specific fundamentals on sovereign default risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3008-3016.
    15. Jorge Selaive C., 2006. "Premio Soberano: Efecto de Movimientos en las Tasas de Interés Internacionales," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(2), pages 73-80, August.
    16. Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads: Domestic, Global Factors, and Volatility," Working Papers 182008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    17. Siklos, Pierre L., 2011. "Emerging market yield spreads: Domestic, external determinants, and volatility spillovers," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 83-100.
    18. Hajer Dachraoui & Mounir Smida & Maamar Sebri, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 15-33.
    19. Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
    20. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.
    21. Adela Luque, 2005. "Skill mix and technology in Spain: evidence from firm level data," Working Papers 0513, Banco de España.
    22. Mansur, Alfan, 2017. "Memantau Risiko Makro Finansial di dalam Perekonomian Indonesia [Surveillance on the Macro-financial Risks of Indonesia's Economy]," MPRA Paper 93752, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 May 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global risk aversion; sovereign spreads; latin america;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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