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Macroeconomic stabilization in developing economies: Are optimal policies procyclical?

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  • Demirel, Ufuk Devrim

Abstract

Many empirical studies provide evidence that macroeconomic policies as well as capital flows exhibit procyclical characteristics in developing economies. In particular Kaminsky et al. [2004. When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, MIT Press] demonstrate that a large group of middle-income countries run contractionary policies and experience capital flight during times of recession. This paper investigates the role of international financial markets in explaining these macroeconomic policy and capital flow characteristics. An optimal fiscal and monetary policy problem is formulated and solved for a small-open economy that faces a country-specific interest rate spread in international financial markets. It is found that, in the presence of the country spread, optimal fiscal and monetary policies as well as capital flows are procyclical under a reasonable parametrization. Optimal policies and capital flows turn countercyclical in the absence of the country spread. This pattern is robust to a range of alternative model specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Demirel, Ufuk Devrim, 2010. "Macroeconomic stabilization in developing economies: Are optimal policies procyclical?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 409-428, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:54:y:2010:i:3:p:409-428
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    Cited by:

    1. Barnett, William A. & Chen, Guo, 2015. "Bifurcation of Macroeconometric Models and Robustness of Dynamical Inferences," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 8(1-2), pages 1-144, September.
    2. Sean J. Gossel & Nicholas Biekpe, 2013. "The Cyclical Relationships Between South Africa's Net Capital Inflows and Fiscal and Monetary Policies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 64-83, March.
    3. Barnett, William A. & Eryilmaz, Unal, 2016. "An Analytical And Numerical Search For Bifurcations In Open Economy New Keynesian Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 482-503, March.
    4. Carrasco, Carlos A., 2013. "El Nuevo Consenso Macroeconómico y la mediocridad del crecimiento económico en México
      [New Consensus Macroeconomics and the mediocrity of economic growth in Mexico]
      ," MPRA Paper 53391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Adjustment to Shocks in Commodity-Producing Countries," OxCarre Working Papers 060, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    6. Duncan, Roberto, 2014. "Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 113-155.
    7. Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye & Mamadou Abdoulaye Konte, 2012. "Politiques macroéconomiques et stabilisation des chocs dans la zone UEMOA," Working Papers halshs-00830595, HAL.
    8. Mamadou Abdoulaye KONTE & Cheikh Tidiane NDIAYE, 2012. "Politiques macroéconomiques et stabilisation des chocs dans la zone UEMOA," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1340, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2013. "Optimal fiscal policy and different degrees of access to international capital markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 336-352.

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