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Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies.The Role of Financial Frictions

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  • Adam Gulan

    (Bank of Finland)

  • Andres Fernandez

    (Rutgers University)

Abstract

Countercyclical country interest rates have been shown to be both a distinctive characteristic and an important driving force of business cycles in emerging markets. In order to capture this, most business cycle models of emerging economies have nonetheless relied on ad hoc and exogenous countercyclical interest rate processes. We offer a solution to this shortcoming by embedding a financial contract `a la Bernanke et al. (1999) into a standard RBC model of a small open economy. Because of the existence of agency problems between foreign lenders and domestic borrowers, this financial structure allows us to fully endogenize the existence of an external finance premium that drives country interest rates. We then take the model to emerging economies data and show that this modification allows to properly account for many of the stylized facts of business cycles in emerging economies, not least the strong volatility and countercyclicality of interest rates. A key mechanism in the model that allows to properly account for this dynamics is a countercylical leverage. We then build a new dataset for leverage in emerging economies and present evidence that this variable is indeed strongly countercyclical in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gulan & Andres Fernandez, 2012. "Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies.The Role of Financial Frictions," 2012 Meeting Papers 849, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:849
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    1. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:67-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chang, Roberto & Fernández, Andrés & Gulan, Adam, 2017. "Bond finance, bank credit, and aggregate fluctuations in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 90-109.
    3. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2017. "Business Cycles In Small Open Economies: Evidence From Panel Data Between 1900 And 2013," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58, pages 1007-1044, August.
    4. Solis-Garcia, Mario & Xie, Yingtong, 2018. "Measuring the size of the shadow economy using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 258-275.
    5. Engler, Philipp & Große Steffen, Christoph, 2016. "Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-61.
    6. Julián Caballero & Andres Fernandez & Jongho Park, 2016. "On Corporate Borrowing, Credit Spreads and Economic Activity in Emerging Economies: An Empirical Investigation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 95296, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    8. Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Financial Frictions In The Euro Area And The United States: A Bayesian Assessment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 1313-1340, July.
    9. Andres Fernandez & Felipe Meza, 2015. "Informal Employment and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Case of Mexico," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 381-405, April.
    10. repec:eee:inecon:v:112:y:2018:i:c:p:123-133 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Javier García-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Santiago Justel, 2014. "Financial Frictions and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 722, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Benigno , Gianluca & Chen , Huigang & Otrock , Christopher & Rebucci , Alessandro & Young , Eric R., 2012. "Monetary and Macro-prudential Policies: An Integrated Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40, October.
    13. Chang, Roberto & Fernández, Andrés & Gulan, Adam, 2017. "Bond finance, bank credit, and aggregate fluctuations in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 90-109.
    14. Alan Finkelstein Shapiro & Andres Gonzalez, 2015. "Macroprudential Policy and Labor Market Dynamics in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 15/78, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Adrian Alter & Selim Elekdag, 2016. "Emerging Market Corporate Leverage and Global Financial Conditions," IMF Working Papers 16/243, International Monetary Fund.
    16. repec:eee:jimfin:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:44-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Smets, Frank & Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Slow recoveries: Any role for corporate leverage?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 54-85.
    18. Izabela Karpowicz & Fabian Lipinsky & Jongho Park, 2016. "A Closer Look at Sectoral Financial Linkages in Brazil I; Corporations’ Financial Statements," IMF Working Papers 16/45, International Monetary Fund.
    19. repec:eee:inecon:v:109:y:2017:i:c:p:43-67 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Javier García-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Santiago Justel, 2015. "Domestic Financial Frictions and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.), Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 6, pages 159-222 Central Bank of Chile.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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