IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lajcba/v3y2022i1s2666143822000072.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Commodity prices, bank balance sheets and macroprudential policies in small open economies

Author

Listed:
  • Villca, Alfredo

Abstract

How important are liability dollarization in the transmission of commodity shocks on business cycles? To address this question, we developed a small open economy DSGE model with a banking sector and financial friction. The banks collect funds in the international capital markets in the form of foreign debt, which is denominated in dollars. Faced with a commodity shock, the results suggest that the presence of liability dollarization generates a greater response output, compared to the model that ignores this financial mechanism. In fact, after simulating a series of shocks in each period, bank balance sheets amplify expansions and deepen economic recessions. Thus, the volatility of business cycles is strongly affected by the presence of liability dollarization. However, the application of countercyclical macroprudential policies, based on Basel III capital requirements, absorbs the impacts of commodity shocks. In addition, this type of policy allows greater gains in social welfare. In summary, it can be pointed out that the bank balance sheets are quantitatively important because they provide information to understand macroeconomic fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Villca, Alfredo, 2022. "Commodity prices, bank balance sheets and macroprudential policies in small open economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:lajcba:v:3:y:2022:i:1:s2666143822000072
    DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2022.100052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143822000072
    Download Restriction: Gold Open Access

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.latcb.2022.100052?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bodenstein, Martin & Kamber, Güneş & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2018. "Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 170-184.
    2. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    4. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    5. Carlos de Resende & Ali Dib & René Lalonde & Nikita Perevalov, 2016. "Countercyclical Bank Capital Requirement and Optimized Monetary Policy Rules," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 2267-2291, October.
    6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, March.
    7. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    8. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," Research Department Publications 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    10. repec:idb:wpaper:318 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    12. Stephanie Schmitt†Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2018. "How Important Are Terms†Of†Trade Shocks?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 85-111, February.
    13. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.
    14. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
    15. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    16. Roger Aliaga‐Díaz & María Pía Olivero & Andrew Powell, 2018. "Monetary Policy And Anti‐Cyclical Bank Capital Regulation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 837-858, April.
    17. Francisco Covas & Shigeru Fujita, 2010. "Procyclicality of Capital Requirements in a General Equilibrium Model of Liquidity Dependence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(34), pages 137-173, December.
    18. Fernández, Andrés & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2017. "World shocks, world prices, and business cycles: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 2-14.
    19. Iñaki Aldasoro & Torsten Ehlers, 2018. "Global liquidity: changing instrument and currency patterns," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    20. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    21. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
    22. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    23. Kitano Shigeto & Takaku Kenya, 2018. "Capital controls as a credit policy tool in a small open economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-19, January.
    24. Isha Agarwal & Rupa Duttagupta & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2020. "Commodity Prices And Bank Lending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 953-979, April.
    25. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    26. Valerio Nispi Landi, 2017. "Capital controls, macroprudential measures and monetary policy interactions in an emerging economy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1154, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    27. Caldara, Dario & Cavallo, Michele & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2019. "Oil price elasticities and oil price fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-20.
    28. Bertrand Gruss & Suhaib Kebhaj, 2019. "Commodity Terms of Trade: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/021, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Bora Durdu & Alex Martin & Ilknur Zer, 2019. "The Role of U.S. Monetary Policy in Global Banking Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Zhang, Longmei, 2009. "Bank capital regulation, the lending channel and business cycles," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    32. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    33. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," Research Department Publications 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    34. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367, Elsevier.
    35. Ben Zeev, Nadav & Pappa, Evi & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2017. "Emerging economies business cycles: The role of commodity terms of trade news," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 368-376.
    36. Kitano, Shigeto & Takaku, Kenya, 2020. "Capital controls, macroprudential regulation, and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    37. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    38. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2007. "Optimal interest rate rules, asset prices, and credit frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3228-3254, October.
    39. Francisco Roch, 2019. "The adjustment to commodity price shocks," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 437-467, January.
    40. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
    41. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    42. Yasin Mimir & Enes Sunel, 2019. "External Shocks, Banks, and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Recipe for Emerging Market Central Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(2), pages 235-299, June.
    43. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    44. Kosuke Aoki & Gianluca Benigno & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2016. "Monetary and Financial Policies in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2016-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    45. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    2. Kitano, Shigeto & Takaku, Kenya, 2020. "Capital controls, macroprudential regulation, and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    5. Zhongyuan Geng & Xuan Liu, 2019. "Optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(20), pages 2155-2171, April.
    6. Bodenstein, Martin & Kamber, Güneş & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2018. "Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 170-184.
    7. Adam Gulan & Andres Fernandez, 2012. "Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies.The Role of Financial Frictions," 2012 Meeting Papers 849, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Richard E. Ericson & Xuan Liu, 2012. "Welfare effect of interest rate shocks and policy implications," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(22), pages 1899-1917, November.
    9. Kang, Hyunju, 2013. "Behind the scenes of abandoning a fixed exchange rate regime," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3145-3156.
    10. Yannick Kalantzis, 2015. "Financial Fragility in Small Open Economies: Firm Balance Sheets and the Sectoral Structure," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 1194-1222.
    11. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1265-1293, November.
    12. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    13. Van Nguyen, Phuong, 2020. "The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model," Dynare Working Papers 56, CEPREMAP.
    14. D. Filiz Unsal, 2013. "Capital Flows and Financial Stability: Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Responses," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 233-285, March.
    15. Alejandro Torres-García & Jaime Montoya-Arbeláez & Laura Wberth-Escobar, 2022. "Commodity price shocks and the balance sheet effect in emerging economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2081-2110, November.
    16. Andrés Fernández & Adam Gulan, 2015. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 153-188, July.
    17. Markus Kirchner & Malte Rieth, 2021. "Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary–Fiscal Stabilization," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 391-426, June.
    18. Jae Shim, 2016. "Financial Frictions in the Small Open Economy," Department of Economics Working Papers 50/16, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    19. Nan Li, 2011. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: the Role of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 686-704, October.
    20. Ottonello, Pablo, 2021. "Optimal exchange-rate policy under collateral constraints and wage rigidity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Commodity prices; Small open economy; Bank balance sheets; Liability dollarization; Financial frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lajcba:v:3:y:2022:i:1:s2666143822000072. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/latin-american-journal-of-central-banking .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/latin-american-journal-of-central-banking .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.