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World shocks, world prices, and business cycles: An empirical investigation

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  • Fernández, Andrés
  • Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie
  • Uribe, Martín

Abstract

SVAR models that include a single world price (such as the terms-of-trade) predict that world shocks explain a small fraction of movements in domestic output (typically less than 10%). This paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices transmit world disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960–2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33% of output fluctuations in individual economies. This figure doubles when the model is estimated on post 2000 data. The findings reported here suggest that one-world-price specifications significantly underestimate the importance of world shocks for domestic business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández, Andrés & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2017. "World shocks, world prices, and business cycles: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 2-14.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:s1:p:s2-s14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    3. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gondo, Rocío & Pérez, Fernando, 2018. "The Transmission of Exogenous Commodity and Oil Prices shocks to Latin America - A Panel VAR approach," Working Papers 2018-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. Hakon Tretvoll & Fernando Leibovici & David Kohn, 2017. "Trade in Commodities and Emerging Market Business Cycles," 2017 Meeting Papers 743, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Isha Agrawal & Rupa Duttagupta & Andrea F Presbitero, 2017. "International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 17/279, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea F Presbitero, 2018. "Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 18/153, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    6. Sergio Urzua & Felipe Saffie & Felipe Benguria, 2017. "Demand Shocks and Labor Market Dynamics: Firm Level Responses to a Commodity Boom," 2017 Meeting Papers 1443, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Jorda, Oscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2018. "Inflation Globally," Working Paper Series 2018-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    9. Andres Fernandez & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Cesar Tamayo, 2017. "Saving Rates in Latin America: A Neoclassical Perspective," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8706, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:368-376 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Vadym Lepetyuk & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2017. "Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models?," Staff Working Papers 17-21, Bank of Canada.
    12. Alejandro Torres García & Laura Wberth Escobar, 2018. "Commodity Prices Shocks and the Balance Sheet Effect in Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 016362, Universidad EAFIT.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    World shocks; Commodity prices; Business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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