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Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies

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  • Rodriguez, Diego
  • Gonzalez, Andres
  • Fernandez, Andres

Abstract

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). This paper documents how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. A commodity sector is then embedded into a multi-country EMEs business cycle model where exogenous fluctuations in commodity prices follow a common dynamic factor structure and coexist with other driving forces. The estimated model assigns to commodity shocks 42 percent of the variance in income, of which a considerable part is linked to the common factor. A further amplification mechanism is a spillover effect from commodity prices to risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodriguez, Diego & Gonzalez, Andres & Fernandez, Andres, 2016. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7382, Inter-American Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:7382
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging economies; Business cycles; Commodity prices; Common factors; Bayesian estimation; Dynamic stochastic equilibrium models *; IDB-WP-640;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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